Guosen Securities: Trip.com International Business Grows Over 50%, Antitrust Fine Removes Uncertainty

Guoxin Securities has released a research report on Trip.com Group (09961), covering the company's Q2 2026 performance.

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue: RMB 15.7 billion, up 6% year-over-year
• Net Loss: RMB 2.4 billion, primarily due to a RMB 5.2 billion antitrust fine imposed by the State Administration for Market Regulation. Excluding the fine, net profit stood at RMB 2.7 billion.
• Non-GAAP Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: RMB 4.8 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year
• Adjusted EBITDA: RMB 4.6 billion, down 6.5% year-over-year
• Non-GAAP Diluted EPS: Increased 1% year-over-year, supported by a 4.2% decline in the weighted average number of shares

Revenue Breakdown by Segment

Regulatory adjustments and macroeconomic factors led to divergent growth across business lines, while international operations emerged as a structural highlight.

| Segment | Q2 Revenue | YoY Change | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | Accommodation Booking | RMB 6.6 billion | +6% (+8% excluding antitrust penalty impact) | | | Transportation Ticketing | RMB 5.4 billion | -1% | Impacted by high energy prices; railway ticketing affected by regulatory removal of certain value-added services | | Tourism & Vacation | RMB 1.2 billion | +8% | Driven by pure overseas growth | | Business Travel Management | RMB 771 million | +11% | |

International business remains the core growth driver, with Trip.com revenue growth maintaining a rate above 50%.

Outlook and Strategic Focus

• Antitrust fine resolution: The settlement removes a key uncertainty. The company has proactively discontinued certain partnership models (e.g., "Gold Medal" and "Special Card") and adjusted merchant ranking rules on its platform.
• Short-term impact: Revenue growth is expected to slow, with the base effect normalizing from the second half of 2027.
• Long-term strategy: The company is prioritizing its Globalization and High Quality (G2) strategy. New traffic ranking rules and a service-oriented fulfillment advantage, particularly in mid-to-high-end segments, are expected to help stabilize market share.
• International business: Trip.com is positioned as a core engine for future value revaluation.
• AI applications: The company has deployed AI in areas such as intelligent customer service and itinerary planning to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

Investment Recommendations

Guoxin Securities has revised its forecasts downward, factoring in regulatory adjustments and domestic business alignment:

• Revenue growth estimates: 7.4% / 10.8% / 10.7% for the coming periods
• 2026 segment growth revisions:
• Domestic: from +2.5% to -0.6%
• Outbound: from +6.7% to +6.0%
• Pure overseas: from +39.9% to +39.1%
• Adjusted operating profit forecast: RMB 17.8 / 18.9 / 20.5 billion
• Adjusted net profit forecast: RMB 16.2 / 17.5 / 19.1 billion
• Corresponding valuation multiples: 13x / 12x / 11x

The report notes that current valuations do not yet price in overseas business growth. A USD 5 billion share buyback program is expected to provide a margin of safety. Guoxin maintains an "Outperform" rating.

Key Risks

• Intensified industry competition
• Regulatory policy uncertainty
• International geopolitical risks