Shanghai's second-hand home sales hit second-half high in September; multiple new projects trigger lottery

As the traditional "Golden September" peak season for the property market gets underway, transaction volumes in Shanghai's second-hand housing market continue to rise.

Market Performance and Expert Insights

Yan Yuejin, Vice President of the E-House China Research Institute, noted that Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume has maintained the high levels seen since the beginning of this year. Daily data indicates positive performance in the city's property market.

He explained that with holidays approaching, some online contract registration data may show concentrated signing due to adjustments in working days, which can amplify daily fluctuations to a certain extent. However, this still reflects that the overall foundation of market transactions remains robust.

Front-End Indicators Show Recovery

Front-end indicators such as property viewings and client inquiries at leading real estate agencies in Shanghai are continuing to recover.

Data from Lianjia (Shanghai) shows that from September 1 to 19:

• The number of second-hand housing viewings on its platform increased by 13.4% compared to the same period in August
• Client inquiries rose by 5.4%

Contract Signing Activity

Li Siyao, head of the management department at Lianjia's Transaction Service Center in Jing'an District, stated that since September:

• The center's signing volume increased by 47% compared to the same period in August
• The success rate of signings reached 62%

In her view, both buyers and sellers currently have strong willingness to transact and hold relatively rational expectations regarding market prices, thereby driving up the conversion rate of signings.

Supply Side Developments

With the onset of the "Golden September" market trend, homeowners' enthusiasm for listing properties has improved. Since September:

• New listings by the agency have rebounded significantly month-on-month compared to August
• New viewings increased by 16.4% month-on-month and 40% year-on-year

Price Trends

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that since February this year, Shanghai's second-hand housing prices have stopped falling and begun to rise month-on-month. Currently, the index for second-hand housing prices has risen month-on-month for seven consecutive months.

Agency data also indicates that since September:

• The average transaction price for second-hand homes has further recovered compared to August
• The average listing price has remained generally stable
• The current transaction cycle for properties has shortened further compared to the same period last year

Activity at Real Estate Trading Centers

On September 20, The Paper observed at the Pudong New Area Real Estate Trading Center that citizens were coming in large numbers to handle tax payments, ownership transfers, and applications for real estate title certificates, with queues forming at all service windows.

Policy Impact and Market Drivers

Yan Yuejin mentioned that since the beginning of this year, Shanghai has further relaxed purchase restrictions, enabling more homebuyers to qualify for purchases. A typical example is the relaxation of social security contribution requirements: this year, one year of social security contributions now allows purchasing anywhere in the city, whereas previously three years were required for purchases in urban districts. This has released genuine demand and become an important factor supporting the market.

Meanwhile, the "Golden September and Silver October" period itself represents a favorable time window. The market is currently in a phase where policy effects are being further unleashed. Combined with the logic of overall housing price stabilization, as relevant positive news continues to emerge, the mindset of buyers and sellers will likely shift further.

New Housing Market Improvement

The new housing market is also showing sustained improvement. Data from China Index Academy shows that in August this year:

• Shanghai's new home transaction area reached 447,000 square meters
• This represents a 12.2% month-on-month increase
• Year-on-year figures also increased, indicating a recovery in market activity

Joint Marketing Efforts

To seize the market window offered by the "Golden September and Silver October" period and policy releases, real estate agencies and developers have intensified joint marketing efforts. According to information obtained by The Paper, Lianjia (Shanghai) has partnered with several brand developers to launch the "Ideal Home in Shanghai · Golden Autumn New Home Festival," covering multiple new residential projects across the city and offering special discounted units to homebuyers.

Data from Lianjia (Shanghai) shows that as of September 19, 2026:

• The daily average number of new home transactions handled by Lianjia in September increased by 16% month-on-month compared to August
• This grew by 38% year-on-year compared to the same period last September

Among these, Guomao Haishang Yuanshu, a project located outside the Outer Ring Road, performed notably well since September, with transaction volumes surging 105% month-on-month.

Case Study: Kaiyun · Aishangli Project

On the afternoon of September 20, The Paper visited the Kaiyun · Aishangli project in Beicai, Pudong. Although the day was a makeup workday following a holiday adjustment, prospective buyers continued to arrive at the sales office for consultations and subscription procedures.

It is reported that Phase IV of Kaiyun · Aishangli officially opened for subscriptions on September 18, releasing a total of 102 units, including:

• Four townhouses
• 98 garden houses with construction areas ranging from approximately 94 to 143 square meters

These cater to upgrade demands for three- and four-bedroom layouts. According to the latest project statistics, as of 7:00 PM on September 20, the subscription rate reached 206%, triggering the points-based allocation system.

Prior to this, in June this year, Plot 2-1 (Phase III) of the same project entered the market, achieving a subscription rate exceeding 220% for its 84 units, becoming the first hot new home project requiring points-based allocation in Shanghai's inner-middle ring area this year.

According to introductions, the project's key selling points include:

• Location in the inner-middle ring
• Low plot ratio of 1.2
• Entry-level total price starting from RMB 7 million
• Status as completed ready-to-move-in properties

Staff on-site noted that some buyers arrived early in the morning to secure priority for subscription, while others had consultations and subscription arrangements scheduled until 9 or 10 PM. On September 19, visitor traffic far exceeded predictions, prompting the temporary deployment of additional staff and extra reception tables and chairs.

From the perspective of customer demographics, project staff mentioned that part of the clientele came from Lujiazui.

Projects Triggering Points-Based Allocations

According to incomplete statistics, since September, several projects have triggered points-based allocations, including:

• Yuexiu Tianyu in Senlan, Pudong
• Xiangyu Jinmao · Manjia in Jiading New Town
• Poly Hongqiao Hesong · Jingyuan in Chonggu, Qingpu
• Greentown Yuehaitang in Xujing, Qingpu

Additionally, located in Jinqiao, Pudong...

Market Divergence and Promotional Tactics

Industry insiders believe that divergence remains a key characteristic of the market. Even within the same district, market sentiment varies significantly between different new home projects. Only those combining strong product quality with cost-effectiveness can capture market heat.

From market performance, some new home projects have employed various promotional tactics to attract customers, including:

• Price discounts
• Complimentary parking spaces
• Property fee waivers
• Appliance gift packages
• Higher channel commissions to drive site visits

Inventory and Absorption Cycles

Overall, inventory levels and absorption cycles for new home projects are continuously optimizing. Data from China Index Academy shows that sellable inventory of new homes in Shanghai continued to decline in August, with the absorption cycle dropping to 18.47 months.

Source: The Paper