China's hog prices edge down this week; analysts say capacity reduction delayed
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This week, domestic live hog prices in China experienced a volatile downward trend, with the weekly average price declining 1.2% from the previous week to 10.81 yuan/kg, according to data from China Pig Farming Network. The average transaction weight of live hogs continued to rise. Dadi Futures believes that the realization of capacity reduction has been delayed, corroborated by current price performance. The firm notes that theoretical slaughter volume in Q4 remains relatively high, and while demand shows seasonal recovery, its elasticity is insufficient. High frozen pork inventories and accumulated pig weights add further pressure. Dadi Futures expects the supply-demand landscape in Q4 to improve marginally but within limited scope, with live hog prices potentially shifting upward compared to Q3 but constrained upside. A true trend reversal with sustainable profitability is not expected until 2027. Zhuochuang Information forecasts a pattern of slight decline, rebound, then another dip over the next week, with pre-National Day stocking potentially supporting a modest rebound.
Source report
Market Overview
According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, national agricultural product data for September 18 shows that domestic live hog prices experienced a volatile downward trend this week, with the weekly average price declining slightly compared to the previous week.
Price Data
Data from China Pig Farming Network indicates:
- Live hog price (external ternary breed) on September 18: 10.74 yuan/kg, down 1.9% from 10.95 yuan/kg on September 11
- Weekly average live hog price: 10.81 yuan/kg, down 1.2% from last week's average of 10.94 yuan/kg
Recent pork and live hog prices. Charted by The Paper.
Industry Insights
Slaughter Weight Trends
This week, the average transaction weight of live hogs nationwide continued to rise slightly, according to Zhuochuang Information.
Futures Market Perspectives
Guoyuan Futures — (No additional details provided in the original text.)
Dadi Futures believes that the realization of capacity reduction has been delayed, a view corroborated by current live hog price performance. Key observations include:
- Theoretical slaughter volume of commercial pigs in Q4 remains relatively high
- Demand shows seasonal recovery but lacks sufficient elasticity
- High inventories of frozen pork and accumulated pig weights pose additional potential pressures
- The supply-demand landscape in Q4 is expected to improve marginally but within limited scope
- The central level of live hog prices may continue to shift upward compared to Q3, but upside potential remains constrained
- A true trend reversal—where prices sustainably exceed cost lines and profitability is achieved—still awaits 2027
Short-Term Forecast
Zhuochuang Information forecasts the following pattern for the national market over the next week:
- Overall trend: Slight decline, followed by a rebound, then another slight dip
- Weekly average: Likely to decline slightly compared to the previous week
- First half of the second week ahead: Accelerated sales may lead to price declines
- Later in the week: Pre-National Day stocking and short-term reductions in local slaughter volumes may drive modest price rebounds
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(Source: The Paper)
Source
东方财富网-行业研究Eastern
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