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Peru Central Bank Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.2% on Stronger El Niño Impact
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On September 18, Peru's Central Reserve Bank Governor Velarde announced a downward revision of the country's 2026 economic growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2%, citing stronger-than-expected impacts from the El Niño phenomenon. Speaking while presenting the September 2026 inflation report, Velarde noted that the likelihood of more intense climate events has increased, leading to lowered growth expectations for the primary sector, particularly fisheries and agriculture. The central bank also revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 4.2% and cut the 2027 economic growth forecast from 3.2% to 3.0%. The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by abnormal warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures, is known to trigger climatic anomalies globally. The report warns that strong El Niño events, compounded by global warming, increase risks of extreme weather and have long-term impacts on agricultural production, commodity prices, and global supply chains.
Source report
September 19, 2026 — Peru's Central Reserve Bank has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2026, citing stronger-than-expected impacts from the El Niño phenomenon.
Governor Velarde announced on September 18 that the bank now projects 3.2% growth for 2026, down from the previous estimate of 3.4%.
Key Forecast Revisions
- 2026 GDP growth: Revised downward from 3.4% to 3.2%
- 2026 inflation forecast: Revised upward to 4.2%
- 2027 GDP growth: Revised downward from 3.2% to 3.0%
Rationale
Speaking during the presentation of Peru's September 2026 inflation report, Velarde noted that the likelihood of more intense climate events has increased. This has prompted the central bank to lower growth expectations for the primary sector, particularly fisheries and agriculture.
Background
The El Niño phenomenon refers to the large-scale, sustained abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which often triggers climatic anomalies across multiple regions worldwide.
Strong El Niño events, occurring against the backdrop of global warming, not only increase the risk of extreme weather but also generate long-term impacts on agricultural production, commodity prices, and global supply chains.
(Source: CCTV News)
Source
财联社Regional
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Peru cuts 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% on stronger El Niño impact