China hog prices edge down this week; futures firm says capacity reduction payoff delayed to 2027
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According to a weekly price report from East Money, citing data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and China Pig Farming Network, domestic live hog prices in China showed a fluctuating downward trend this week. The price of live hogs (external ternary breed) was 10.74 yuan/kg on September 18, down 1.9% from the previous Friday, with the weekly average falling 1.2% to 10.81 yuan/kg. The national average trading weight of live hogs continued to rise slightly. Guoyuan Futures and Dadi Futures believe that capacity reduction is being delayed, as evidenced by current prices. They forecast that in the fourth quarter, while seasonal demand recovery is expected, its elasticity remains insufficient, and high frozen pork inventories and increasing hog weights pose additional pressures. Dadi Futures states that a true trend reversal with sustainable profitability is not expected until 2027. Zhuochuang Information forecasts a slight decline followed by a rebound and another dip in the coming week, influenced by pre-National Day stockpiling.
Source report
According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, domestic live hog prices in China showed a fluctuating downward trend as of September 18, with the weekly average price declining slightly compared to the previous week.
Price Data
- Live hog price (external ternary breed) on September 18: 10.74 yuan/kg, down 1.9% from 10.95 yuan/kg on September 11
- Weekly average price this week: 10.81 yuan/kg, down 1.2% from last week's average of 10.94 yuan/kg
Recent pork and live hog prices. Charted by The Paper
Market Analysis
National Average Trading Weight
The national average trading weight of live hogs continued to rise slightly this week, according to Zhuochuang Information.
Guoyuan Futures & Dadi Futures Outlook
Dadi Futures believes that the realization of capacity reduction is being delayed, as evidenced by current live hog price performance. Key observations include:
- Fourth quarter commercial hog marketings remain at relatively high levels
- Seasonal demand recovery is expected, but its elasticity remains insufficient
- Additional pressures include high inventories of frozen pork and increasing hog weights
Overall, supply-demand dynamics in the fourth quarter are expected to improve marginally, but the extent will be limited. The central level of live hog prices may continue to shift upward compared to the third quarter, though upside potential remains constrained. A true trend reversal—where prices sustainably exceed production costs and profitability is achieved—is still not expected until 2027.
Zhuochuang Information Forecast
The national market trend over the next week may show a slight decline followed by a rebound and then another slight dip. The average live hog price over the next week may decline slightly week-on-week.
- First half of the second week ahead: Accelerated hog sales may continue, potentially driving prices lower
- Later in the week: Influenced by pre-National Day stockpiling and short-term reductions in local slaughter volumes, prices may rebound modestly
(Source: The Paper)
Source
东方财富网-行业研究Eastern
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