Marvell Raises Fiscal 2028 Revenue Outlook to ~$18 Billion, Driven by AI Custom Chip Business

Trefis Team Wed, September 9, 2026 at 4:02 PM PDT | 4 min read

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If you own Marvell Technology (MRVL) or NVIDIA, you own one idea: the world is building AI data centers as fast as the supply chain allows. NVIDIA sells the whole factory and rents its architecture to everybody. Marvell designs the custom parts hyperscalers use to build alternatives to NVIDIA's chips. Same trend, opposite ends — which is why these two belong side by side.

What Marvell and NVIDIA Guided for Fiscal 2028

Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to approximately $18 billion, up $1.5 billion in a single quarter, against the roughly $12 billion of revenue it now expects for fiscal 2027. The driver is a data center business management expects to grow more than 60% in fiscal 2028.

NVIDIA guided a full year ahead for the first time, to approximately 70% growth in fiscal 2028, and called that number supply-constrained. Marvell is guiding to what it can sell. NVIDIA is guiding to what it can build.

Marvell Is Growing Into a Lower-Margin Mix

The growth arriving at Marvell is the kind that carries a lower gross margin. The company guided non-GAAP gross margin to a range of 57.5% to 58.5% for fiscal Q3 2027 and named the ramp in custom silicon as the cause: the XPU and XPU attach parts it designs one hyperscaler at a time. The CFO expects that range through fiscal 2028, while guiding operating margin toward a 38% to 40% target range exiting fiscal 2027, reaching the high end through fiscal 2028.

The revenue lands late. Management says the custom programs in execution step up most in fiscal 2029. Shares fell 8% to $223.10 in premarket trading the morning after the report, as worry over the timing of its AI chip deal overshadowed a beat on guidance.

NVIDIA Is Widening What It Captures — and What You Pay for It

NVIDIA pulls the other way on what it captures per data center. Its revenue opportunity per gigawatt has climbed from roughly $18 billion with Hopper to $40 billion with Vera Rubin, as its platform absorbed the CPU and the networking.

NVIDIA also keeps far more of each dollar of sales: its net margin runs 63.7% against Marvell's 27.9%. Marvell's net margin sits above its own operating margin, so part of that profit is earned below the operating line. Both current margins are well above Marvell's own three-year average of roughly 1.8% operating and 0.5% net — this year's numbers are a peak, not a run rate, unlike NVIDIA's, which sit close to its own multi-year average.

The premium sits on the smaller company. At $225.41 a share on September 8, Marvell is worth about $202 billion and trades at 57.8 times operating income — on net income, where Marvell's margin runs ahead of its operating margin, that gap narrows considerably. NVIDIA is worth about $5.4 trillion and trades at 23.7 times.

NVIDIA Wins Every Axis, and Marvell Still Won the Year

NVIDIA is ahead on six of six axes: valuation, revenue growth over one year, revenue growth over three years, operating margin, net margin, and leverage. That tally still undersells Marvell: its optical DSPs are a market-leading merchant franchise and its 1.6T products are ramping rapidly.

Marvell also has the year: it rose 242.3% over the past twelve months against 34.3% for NVIDIA. That year is the trap. The last three months already turned — Marvell down 15.5% while NVIDIA gained 8.4%. If you cannot settle whether either stock earns its price, our five-factor scorecard grades both on growth, profitability, stability, resilience, and valuation.

Marvell Versus NVIDIA Is Too Small a Question

The evidence points at NVIDIA today, and you will not know for a year or two whether that was right.

Two things help. First, judge the pair on the numbers rather than the narrative. Second, remember that both companies are riding the same wave — just at different speeds and with different margins.