Colombia presidential election: Left-wing senator Iván Cepeda leads polls

By: Katharina Wojczenko, Niklas Franzen, Jürgen Vogt, Hildegard Willer, and Sophia Boddenberg From Bogotá, Lima, Berlin, and Buenos Aires

Colombia's Presidential Election: Three Candidates, Tight Race

On May 31, 41 million Colombians will head to the polls to decide who will govern the country. Among the 13 candidates, three have the best chances.

In the most recent polls, Iván Cepeda, the left-wing senator from the Pacto Histórico government coalition, remains ahead. However, his lead over competitors has narrowed significantly.

Cepeda is now followed in all surveys by:

• Abelardo de la Espriella (Defensores de la Patria) — ultra-right outsider candidate
• Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático) — far-right candidate

The distance between them varies considerably depending on the poll.

Iván Cepeda: Continuity and Social Reform

The 63-year-old Cepeda aims to continue the policies of the Pacto Histórico and President Gustavo Petro. Petro became Colombia's first leftist president in 2022 and pursued a policy of "total peace." In war-torn Colombia, his government began simultaneous talks with all remaining armed groups. However, these groups exploited the chaos of the process to expand territorially and in personnel.

Although the Pacto Histórico's peace strategy is now widely considered a failure, Cepeda intends to continue it. He also advocates for social reforms, viewing poverty and inequality as the root causes of the country's unending violence. His platform includes:

• Anti-corruption measures
• Agricultural reforms
• Energy transition

Cepeda is a human rights defender and philosopher who has spent decades campaigning for peace, investigating state crimes, and supporting victims. This has made former President Álvaro Uribe — mentor of right-wing candidate Paloma Valencia — his fiercest political opponent.

Background: Under Uribe's government, state security forces committed numerous human rights abuses, sometimes in collaboration with paramilitaries. Cepeda's father, communist senator Manuel Cepeda, was murdered in the 1990s. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruled that the Unión Patriótica party and its supporters were systematically exterminated by the state and its paramilitary accomplices. More than 6,000 people fell victim to this persecution.

Paloma Valencia: The Uribe Protégé

On many election posters, Paloma Valencia is simply referred to as "the one from Uribe." She is campaigning on a modernized version of her foster father's policies:

• No talks with armed groups — a强硬 approach
• Opposition to the historic peace agreement between the state and FARC guerrillas
• Opposition to the Special Court for Peace, which prosecutes both guerrillas and state security forces
• Reviving the war on drugs with U.S. support

Although she could become Colombia's first female president, Valencia explicitly rejects feminism. She is anti-abortion and holds conservative, Catholic positions.

Abelardo de la Espriella: The Far-Right Outsider

Outsider candidate Abelardo de la Espriella positions himself even further to the right than Valencia. The entrepreneur and lawyer is known for:

• Sexist remarks
• Attacks on the press

Calling himself the "Tiger," he aims to be a Colombian version of El Salvador's dictator Nayib Bukele, Argentina's right-wing populist-libertarian Javier Milei, and U.S. President Donald Trump. His campaign relies on a mixture of patriotism and a religious cult of personality, promising the electorate a strong, uncompromising leader.