Visa to acquire Israeli fraud detection startup BioCatch for $2.4 billion

Author: Fatima Gulzar Read time: 4 minutes

On August 3, 2024, Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) agreed to acquire Tel Aviv-based fraud detection startup BioCatch for $2.4 billion in cash — its largest move yet to combat the rising wave of AI-powered scams in the payments industry. The deal comes just days after rival Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) reported strong quarterly results.

Why Visa Is Spending Big to Catch Up

BioCatch analyzes typing cadence, touchscreen swipes, and device handling to identify scammers and bots before a payment is processed. Visa says the technology is essential as generative AI makes fraud cheaper and more convincing. Visa estimates that scams and account takeovers already cost the global economy more than $1 trillion annually.

Evercore's Adam Frisch noted that investors will welcome the news, adding that "many" in the industry have flagged Mastercard's own Recorded Future acquisition as "the best-in-class tool" for this type of protection.

This raises a key question: Is Visa's deal a smart, necessary defense of its massive transaction network, or is it simply following a playbook Mastercard already proved out two years ago?

Visa's Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• BioCatch already protects 760 million users across more than 350 banks in 21 countries.
• Integrating BioCatch into Visa's value-added services division — one of its fastest-growing businesses — offers significant distribution potential across Visa's network of nearly 14,500 financial institutions and $17 trillion in annual transaction volume.
• BioCatch's revenue and gross profit both roughly tripled under its previous owner, Permira, demonstrating strong momentum.
• Visa has invested more than $13 billion in fraud and technology infrastructure over the past five years, reflecting a sustained commitment.

Bear Case

• The deal explicitly invites comparison to Mastercard's Recorded Future, already described by analysts as the category leader, suggesting Visa is playing catch-up.
• Visa's stock barely moved on the announcement.
• The acquisition is not expected to close until the end of Visa's fiscal second quarter of 2027 — a long wait before any impact appears in results.
• The deal follows Visa's recent layoff of 2,600 employees, raising questions about balancing cost cuts with acquisition spending.

Mastercard's Bull and Bear Case

Bull Case

• Mastercard's results, reported just days before Visa's announcement, beat expectations across the board:
• Adjusted earnings: $5.04 per share vs. $4.77 expected
• Revenue growth: 14%, reaching $9.3 billion
• Value-added services revenue (the category Visa is now targeting): up 20%
• Mastercard's 2024 purchase of Recorded Future gives it a head start in fraud intelligence.
• Visa's new deal will take over a year to close before it can compete directly.

Bear Case

• Mastercard's cross-border volume growth slowed to 12%, down from 15% a year earlier, though it still beat estimates.
• With Visa now investing heavily in fraud technology to challenge Mastercard's lead, that advantage may not last as long as it currently appears.

Insider Monkey's Hedge Fund Data

According to Insider Monkey's hedge fund database:

| Company | Q1 2026 Hedge Fund Holders | Change from Previous Quarter | |---|---|---| | Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) | 181 | Down from 184 | | Mastercard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) | 157 | Up from 150 | | American Express | 83 | Flat | | PayPal | 76 | Down from 78 |

Visa continues to attract the most hedge fund interest among its payment peers.

Conclusion

Visa is spending heavily to close a fraud-technology gap that Mastercard opened two years ago. Mastercard's Recorded Future remains the tool the market trusts most — at least until the BioCatch deal closes sometime in 2027. Nonetheless, hedge funds currently favor Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) over Mastercard.