Poll: Labour's Bev Craig leads Greater Manchester mayoral by-election

Published Jul 30, 11:50 AM UTC

Labour is expected to retain the Greater Manchester mayoralty in a by-election triggered by Andy Burnham's move to become Prime Minister. Labour candidate Bev Craig leads polls with 38%, followed by Reform UK's Sian Niamh Astley at 24% and the Greens' Geraldine Coggins at 17%. The election uses a supplementary voting system, and if no candidate wins over 50% of first-choice votes, a second round between the top two candidates will decide the winner. The contest has implications beyond Manchester, as it tests Labour's ability to hold off the Green surge in urban areas and Reform UK in working-class towns. The winner will control a £3 billion budget and significant powers over housing, health, policing, and transport. Despite early predictions of a close race, polls suggest Labour will win with relative ease, though the Greens and Reform are offering radical alternatives to the unpopular Starmer government.