Labour overtakes Reform UK in voting intentions for first time in 16 months, poll shows

Reform UK has lost its 16-month lead in the polls just one week after Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, according to new data from More in Common.

A survey of voting intentions found that 28% of respondents would now back Labour – an increase of four percentage points compared to just five days ago. Reform UK is on 24%, a decline of two percentage points in less than a week.

This marks the first time the right-wing party has slipped into second place in the polls since March 2025.

Blow for Nigel Farage

The results will be a blow to Reform leader Nigel Farage, who is fighting the Clacton by-election in August. He triggered a "people versus the establishment" contest by standing down as an MP last month to force a fresh vote in his constituency.

However, all major parties chose not to run campaigns against Farage in the seat. Labour, the Conservatives, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, and even Restore Britain have dismissed the contest as a stunt and said they would not stand any candidates.

So far, Count Binface – a comedy character who regularly stands in by-elections – is the Reform leader's only serious rival in the by-election.

Farage's dramatic decision came amid heightened scrutiny over his finances. A parliamentary probe into the £5 million gift he received from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne before he was elected to the Commons in 2024 is on pause while he is not a sitting MP.

Burnham's Policy Blitz

The poll also comes after a flurry of policy announcements from Burnham, who has vowed to put the cost of living at the heart of his government. He unveiled:

• A £2 cap on bus fares
• A pledge to end rough sleeping
• A promise to cut VAT from energy bills
• A 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs, and live music venues
• A new "Number 10 North" as part of his devolution drive

The Prime Minister has ruled out holding an "early" general election amid growing speculation he could take advantage of this honeymoon period. He told reporters on Monday that while he was "pleased" with the poll, he "wouldn't get carried away."

"I'm pleased to have kind of made a start where hopefully I've connected with people and I am talking a lot about Britain believing again and getting its hold back. And I'm not going to apologise for that," he said.

Expert Analysis

Luke Tryl, UK Director of More in Common, said: "It's only been a week since he entered office, but it's clear that momentum is on the prime minister's side.

"After a jam-packed week of high-profile policy announcements and media appearances, the Labour Party has surged in our weekly poll.

"With all the caveats that it's just one poll, Labour now leads for the first time since March of last year, and holds its highest vote share since the early months of this government in 2024.

"And with both Reform and the Green Party dropping to their lowest vote share in months, it seems that this early focus on the cost of living has appealed to voters that Labour has lost across left and right.

"It's too early to see if this lead in the polls will be sustainable as Burnham makes his first moves and gets further into the practicalities of governing, but for the first time in a while, it seems that the government's electoral fortunes could be lifting."

Poll Data

The More in Common survey of 2,061 respondents, conducted between 24–27 July, found:

• Labour: 28% (+4)
• Reform UK: 24% (-2)
• Conservative: 22% (no change)
• Liberal Democrat: 12% (+1)
• Green: 8% (-3)
• SNP: 2% (no change)

The Conservatives were only two points behind Reform UK in the same poll.