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PoliticsReform UK loses 16-month poll lead as Labour surges under PM Burnham
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Reform UK has lost its 16-month lead in UK voting intention polls just one week after Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. A More in Common survey shows Labour at 28% (up 4 points), while Reform UK dropped to 24% (down 2 points), marking the first time since March 2025 that Reform has fallen to second place. The Conservatives remain at 22%, just two points behind Reform. The poll comes amid a flurry of cost-of-living-focused policy announcements from Burnham, including a £2 bus fare cap, a pledge to end rough sleeping, VAT cuts on energy bills, and a 20% business rate cut for pubs and venues. Nigel Farage, facing a Clacton by-election in August after resigning his seat, is also under scrutiny over a £5 million gift from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne. Major parties have declined to field candidates against Farage, leaving only comedy candidate Count Binface as a serious rival.
Source report
Reform UK has lost its 16-month lead in the polls just one week after Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, according to new data from More in Common.
A survey of voting intentions found that 28% of respondents would now back Labour — an increase of four percentage points compared to just five days ago. Reform UK, meanwhile, stands at 24%, a decline of two percentage points in less than a week.
This marks the first time the right-wing party has slipped into second place in the polls since March 2025.
Blow for Farage Ahead of By-Election
The results will be a blow to Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who is fighting the Clacton by-election in August. He triggered a "people versus the establishment" contest by standing down as an MP last month to force a fresh vote in his constituency.
However, all major parties have chosen not to run campaigns against Farage in the seat. Labour, the Conservatives, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, and even Restore Britain have dismissed the contest as a stunt and said they would not field any candidates.
So far, Count Binface — a comedy character who regularly stands in by-elections — is the Reform leader's only serious rival in the contest.
Farage's dramatic decision came amid heightened scrutiny over his finances. A parliamentary probe into the £5 million gift he received from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne before being elected to the Commons in 2024 is on pause while he is not a sitting MP.
Burnham's Policy Blitz
The poll also follows a flurry of policy announcements from Burnham, who has vowed to put the cost of living at the heart of his government. His recent pledges include:
- A £2 cap on bus fares
- A pledge to end rough sleeping
- A promise to cut VAT from energy bills
- A 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs, and live music venues
- A new "Number 10 North" as part of his devolution drive
Other Party Results
More in Common's poll also found the Conservatives were only two points behind Reform, holding steady at 22%. The Liberal Democrats were on 12%, an increase of one percentage point, while the Greens saw their support decline by three percentage points to 8%.
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Source
HuffPost UK - Athena2 - All Entries (Public)Western
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Reform UK Loses 16-Month Poll Lead as Labour Surges Under Prime Minister Andy Burnham