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PoliticsReform UK Slips to 23% in Polls, Just One Point Ahead of Labour
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Reform UK has fallen to its lowest polling level since 2024, now at 23%, just one point ahead of Labour at 22%, according to an Opinium survey for the Observer. The decline follows a controversy over party leader Nigel Farage's finances, including a parliamentary probe into an undeclared £5 million donation. Farage triggered a by-election in his Clacton constituency by stepping down as an MP. He frames the contest as 'people versus the establishment,' but major parties have not fielded candidates, leaving him mainly against comedy candidate Count Binface. The Conservatives rose to 20%, their highest since April 2025, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats trail at 14% and 11% respectively. Additional polling by More in Common found 45% of the public view Farage as part of the establishment, undermining his anti-establishment stance.
Source report
Nigel Farage's Reform UK has fallen to its lowest polling level since 2024, as the party leader contends with a by-election triggered amid ongoing questions over his finances.
According to a survey by strategic insight company Opinium, conducted for The Observer, Reform UK currently stands at 23% — just one percentage point ahead of Labour, which has risen to 22%, its highest level since April 2026.
The poll marks a significant shift after Reform held a comfortable lead with voters for more than a year.
Key Poll Findings (Opinium for The Observer)
- Reform UK: 23% (-1) — lowest since 2024
- Labour: 22% (+3) — highest since April 2026
- Conservatives: 20% (+2) — highest since April 2025
- Green Party: 14% (-2)
- Liberal Democrats: 11% (-1)
Farage's By-Election Battle
The polling decline comes as Farage fights a by-election he triggered in his constituency of Clacton. He stepped down as an MP earlier this month amid heightened scrutiny over his finances.
A parliamentary probe into a £5 million donation he received shortly before running in the 2024 general election — which he failed to declare — is currently on pause while he is outside the Commons.
Farage has framed the contest as a "people versus the establishment" battle, but all major parties have refused to field a candidate. His main opponent is comedy candidate Count Binface.
Public Perception of 'Establishment' Status
Polling by More in Common last week undermined Farage's claim not to be part of the establishment. It found that:
- 45% of the public believe Farage — a privately-educated former MEP and stockbroker — is himself part of the establishment.
- This compares to 52% for Keir Starmer, 54% for Kemi Badenoch, and 41% for incoming prime minister Andy Burnham.
Other Polling Data
A separate survey by Survation put both Labour and Reform UK at 24%.
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Source
HuffPost UK - Athena2 - All Entries (Public)Western
Part of this Story
Reform UK Slips in Polls Amid Farage Finance Row