ASEAN foreign ministers to hold first informal meeting with Myanmar junta in five years

The foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will hold an informal meeting with their Myanmar counterpart this weekend, marking the first such engagement in five years.

The meeting, scheduled for July 12 in Bangkok, was confirmed yesterday by the foreign ministries of Thailand and Vietnam, according to Reuters.

"The meeting in Bangkok is an opportunity for ASEAN foreign ministers to directly exchange views, strengthen cooperation, and promote reconciliation dialogue in Myanmar," Vietnam Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang said during a regular press briefing yesterday.

Background on the Conflict

Since the military's seizure of power in February 2021, Myanmar has been paralyzed by conflict between the military and a host of ethnic armed groups and other resistance forces. According to the United Nations, approximately 3.6 million people are now displaced within the country, most of whom have been driven from their homes since the coup.

Path to the Meeting

The meeting with Myanmar's military-backed Foreign Minister Tin Maung Swe was agreed upon by ASEAN foreign ministers at their last summit in May. During that summit, Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro—the current ASEAN special envoy for Myanmar—briefed her counterparts on the "evolving political and humanitarian situation" inside the country.

The 11-nation bloc has excluded Myanmar from its summits since late 2021, citing the country's failure to implement the Five-Point Consensus—ASEAN's roadmap for managing the conflict. The Consensus, agreed at a special ASEAN meeting in April 2021, calls for an immediate cessation of violence and inclusive dialogue involving "all parties" to the conflict.

Myanmar's Normalization Campaign

Since taking office as "president" in April, following a controversial and widely boycotted election, coup leader Min Aung Hlaing has spearheaded a campaign to normalize diplomatic relations with Myanmar's neighbors, including ASEAN. Shortly after his inauguration, Min Aung Hlaing announced that his new "civilian" administration intends to "enhance international relations and strive to restore normal relations" with the Southeast Asian bloc.

As part of this campaign, Min Aung Hlaing has in recent months:

• Announced the release of political prisoners
• Ordered the relocation of deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest
• Invited key ethnic armed groups to participate in fresh peace talks

Divisions Within ASEAN

While this normalization campaign has been widely dismissed as a sham by resistance groups and rights organizations both within Myanmar and abroad—and ASEAN has not officially recognized the election result—it has highlighted divisions between member states.

Pro-engagement camp: Led by Thailand, which pushed for the July 12 meeting and wants to bring Myanmar back into "the ASEAN family," as Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow stated in February. Over the past year, Sihasak has held several meetings with Tin Maung Swe, most recently in Naypyidaw in April, during which the two officials "stated the importance of strengthening the existing friendship and cooperation between the two countries, as well as enhancing closer collaboration at regional and international levels."

Laos also belongs to this camp, having last week rolled out the red carpet for Min Aung Hlaing—his first official trip to an ASEAN member state in his guise as president. (The former military chief has also conducted high-profile state visits to China and India.)

Harder-line camp: Includes Malaysia and the Philippines, ASEAN's current chair.

What to Expect at the Bangkok Meeting

During this weekend's meeting, Tin Maung Swe is likely to press the government's case for re-engagement and describe how the military plans to resolve the ongoing conflict according to its own contentious "roadmap."

Whether this will convince more recalcitrant nations remains unclear. Last week, Myanmar's government denied Manila's request to give Lazaro "brief access" to Aung San Suu Kyi, which the Philippines said was necessary for Lazaro to fulfill her role of engaging "all stakeholders and parties to create an environment conducive to inclusive national dialogue."

The Philippines responded by reiterating that the release of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, was "essential to advancing meaningful political dialogue as envisioned in the [Five-Point Consensus]." Lazaro has also announced plans to continue engagements with ethnic armed groups opposed to the Myanmar military.

Given Manila's views, it is unlikely that ASEAN will reach a unified position on Myanmar's re-engagement during the Bangkok meeting.