SpaceX tradable shares to surge from 4% to 40% by December as lockups expire

Jennifer Saibil, The Motley Fool Mon, July 6, 2026 at 8:42 AM PDT 4 min read

• SPCX: -0.55%
• NVDA: +0.89%

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), also known as SpaceX, had the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history last month, raising more than $86 billion. However, the company is currently valued at $2.1 trillion, meaning only 4% of its stock is trading on the open market.

Here is a look at what that means, why it is about to change, and how much SpaceX stock will be available before the end of the year.

Insiders and Outsiders

A company's total value includes shares available for trading on the open market as well as shares held by insiders. When discussing an individual's "net worth," much of it is often tied up in company stock.

SpaceX founder Elon Musk, for example, has a net worth of just under $1 trillion. That figure fluctuates with the price of SpaceX stock, as he owns a significant portion of the company and holds more than 80% voting rights through class B shares. Under the company's lockup rules, Musk cannot sell any stock for 366 days after the IPO, meaning any sale by him would not occur until next June.

The remaining stock — beyond the 4% on the market and Musk's shares — is held by other SpaceX insiders, subject to a staggered lockup period before they can sell.

• First lockup period: Ends the day after the second-quarter earnings release, likely in late July or early August for the period ending June 30. Up to 20% of shares (911 million shares) can be sold at that point.
• Additional rule: If the stock trades at a 30% premium to the IPO price for five out of ten trading days after the earnings release, an additional 458 million shares can be sold.
• Subsequent periods: Various lockup periods extend from the 70th day post-IPO through the 366th day. By December — approximately 180 days after the IPO — most lockup shares will be eligible for sale. What remains are Musk's shares and those of other insiders subject to an "extended lockup."

The total insider shares eligible for sale by day 180 amounts to approximately 4.7 billion, which at current prices represents about 36% of the company's total value.

Supply Shock for Investors

The purpose of any lockup period is to stabilize the stock after its IPO. The staggered lockup periods in this case are likely due to the high volatility associated with the massive IPO and valuation. If the tradable supply jumped from 4% to 40% in a single day, it could disrupt the market.

It is important to note that not all 36% of shares eligible for sale by day 180 will necessarily be sold, so the shift from 4% to 40% in six months is unlikely. However, the increase in available shares could still push the price downward, as the basic law of supply and demand applies.

For any IPO, it is generally prudent to wait until after the lockup period before investing. With SpaceX, this caution may be even more critical.

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