Min Aung Hlaing to visit Laos, deepening ASEAN rifts

Min Aung Hlaing's trip to Vientiane marks a further fracture in regional bloc unity

Myanmar's self-appointed "President" Min Aung Hlaing is set to embark on his first official visit to an ASEAN country since his appointment in April, with Laos confirmed as the destination.

Visit Details

The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar announced on July 1 that the visit would take place over the "next few days," though no specific date was given. However, Laos' state-run Vientiane Times reported that Min Aung Hlaing would travel to Laos from July 3 to 5 "to mark the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Laos and Myanmar," following an invitation from Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith.

Context of the Visit

The announcement comes shortly after Myanmar's military-backed government rejected a request from the ASEAN chair to meet with ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, effectively dismissing the proof-of-life campaign launched by her son, Kim Aris.

By denying access to Suu Kyi and then traveling to Laos in an official capacity, Min Aung Hlaing has driven a further wedge into ASEAN — a move analysts compare to a lumberjack felling a tree.

ASEAN's Deepening Fault Lines

The divisions within ASEAN have widened since mainland countries Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — known as the "CLM Club" — joined the regional bloc in the late 1990s. Key points of tension include:

• South China Sea Code of Conduct: Rifts with maritime ASEAN members, including Vietnam, have often centered on this issue, with the CLM Club acting as a proxy and spoiler on China's behalf.
• Myanmar's 2021 coup: ASEAN's relations with Naypyidaw collapsed after Min Aung Hlaing's coup, which ousted Suu Kyi and plunged the country into a civil war that has claimed nearly 100,000 lives.
• Non-recognition: ASEAN has not endorsed Min Aung Hlaing's stage-managed election, and a ban on his regime attending ASEAN summits remains in place.

Regional Dynamics

Laos and Cambodia have maintained ties with Myanmar, even as all three countries have emerged as havens for organized crime, with ruling elites profiting from human trafficking networks and industrial-scale scam compounds.

Thailand, geographically squeezed by its mainland neighbors, has become a flashpoint for ASEAN unity. Its border with Cambodia remains closed following last year's six-month Thai-Cambodian border war, which originated from former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's decision to leak a private conversation with his then-Thai counterpart Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

The Five-Point Consensus

ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus (5PC) — the bloc's framework for resolving Myanmar's civil war — had largely slipped from view as the conflict's death toll mounted. The Philippines, as current ASEAN chair, recently revived the 5PC.

Philippines foreign affairs spokesperson Dominic "Dax" Imperial expressed cautious optimism, stating: "As Myanmar takes steps in a positive direction, we reiterate the importance of releasing all other prisoners, particularly the elderly and infirm, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Such actions are essential to advancing meaningful political dialogue as envisioned in the 5PC."

However, for more than five years, the Naypyidaw regime has ignored the 5PC and all ASEAN attempts to end the conflict — including genuine efforts by Hun Sen, who once described Min Aung Hlaing as a "brother."

Quest for Legitimacy

Min Aung Hlaing has few allies he can count on. His first official ASEAN tour as self-declared president is to Laos — another one-party state heavily dependent on China, much like Myanmar's military regime and the Cambodian government.

The junta chief will continue his quest for legitimacy in defiance of most of ASEAN and much of the international community. But ultimately, he can only return to a country where he is widely loathed for the carnage inflicted since his coup five years ago.

An official trip to Phnom Penh may follow.