Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing to visit Laos, widening ASEAN divisions

Min Aung Hlaing's trip to Vientiane marks a further fracture in regional bloc unity

Myanmar's self-appointed "President" Min Aung Hlaing is set to embark on his first official visit to an ASEAN country since his appointment in April, with Laos confirmed as the destination.

Visit Details

The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar announced on July 1 that the visit would take place over the "next few days," though no specific date was given. However, Laos' state-run Vientiane Times reported that Min Aung Hlaing would travel to Laos from July 3 to 5 "to mark the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Laos and Myanmar," following an invitation from Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith.

Context of the Visit

The announcement comes shortly after Myanmar's military-backed government rejected a request from the ASEAN chair to meet with ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, effectively dismissing the proof-of-life campaign launched by her son, Kim Aris.

By denying access to Suu Kyi and then traveling to Laos in an official capacity, Min Aung Hlaing has driven a wedge deeper into ASEAN — akin to a lumberjack felling a tree.

ASEAN's Deepening Fault Lines

Fractures within ASEAN have widened since mainland countries Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — known as the "CLM Club" — joined the regional bloc in the late 1990s. Rifts with maritime ASEAN members, including Vietnam, have often centered on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, where the CLM Club has acted as a proxy and spoiler on China's behalf.

ASEAN's relations with Naypyidaw collapsed following Min Aung Hlaing's coup in early 2021, which ousted Suu Kyi and plunged the country into a civil war that has claimed nearly 100,000 lives. His stage-managed election has not been endorsed by ASEAN, and a ban on his regime attending ASEAN summits remains in place.

Regional Dynamics

Laos and Cambodia have maintained ties with Myanmar as all three countries have emerged as havens for organized crime, with ruling elites profiting from human trafficking networks and industrial-scale scam compounds.

Thailand, geographically stranded between its mainland neighbors, has become a flashpoint for ASEAN unity. Its border with Cambodia remains closed following last year's six-month Thai-Cambodian border war, which originated from former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's decision to leak a private conversation with his then-Thai counterpart Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

The Five-Point Consensus

ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus (5PC) — the bloc's framework for resolving Myanmar's civil war — had slipped from view as the death toll mounted amid the junta's bombing of civilians and disregard for international efforts.

The Philippines, as current ASEAN chair, recently revived the 5PC. Foreign Affairs spokesperson Dominic "Dax" Imperial expressed cautious optimism, acknowledging the junta's release of political prisoners and the transfer of Suu Kyi from jail to a "designated residence."

"As Myanmar takes steps in a positive direction, we reiterate the importance of releasing all other prisoners, particularly the elderly and infirm, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi," Imperial said. "Such actions are essential to advancing meaningful political dialogue as envisioned in the 5PC."

For more than five years, however, the regime has ignored the 5PC and ASEAN's attempts to end the conflict — including genuine efforts by Hun Sen, who once described Min Aung Hlaing as a "brother."

Quest for Legitimacy

Min Aung Hlaing has few allies he can count on, which explains why his first "official" ASEAN tour as self-made president is to Laos — another one-party state heavily dependent on China, much like Myanmar's military regime and Cambodia's government.

He will continue his quest for legitimacy in defiance of most of ASEAN and much of the international community. But ultimately, he can only return to a country where he is widely loathed for the carnage inflicted since his coup five years ago. An official trip to Phnom Penh may follow.