Circle (CRCL) rebounds after 18% plunge as analysts say Open USD threat overblown

Logan Hitchcock Wed, July 1, 2026 at 10:42 AM PDT 2 min read

Shares in USDC stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) fell 18% on Tuesday amid news of a competing stablecoin launch, Open USD (OUSD), from global partners including Coinbase, Visa, and Mastercard. However, analysts at Clear Street believe the market move was an overreaction from investors.

"While OUSD has strong partners similar to other leading stablecoins, without any solid evidence that OUSD can get real traction, the selloff looks overdone," analysts wrote in a Wednesday note.

Ahead of OUSD's launch later this year, analysts acknowledge the narrative threat may persist. But Circle's USDC stablecoin has demonstrated resilience in the face of previous stablecoin launches.

"While the narrative will linger, CRCL has maintained strong market shares even though new stablecoins continuously arise," they wrote. "Our initial assessment is OUSD is not dissimilar to USDG (Global Dollar Network stablecoin) which hasn't gained meaningful market shares."

Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire addressed the OUSD launch at the request of investors, emphasizing his firm's strength and the "massive scale" of the USDC network—something OUSD will not have at launch.

According to Allaire, strong stablecoin networks require a wide range of services and applications, robust liquidity, and "deep integration with the policy and regulatory environment."

"All of these investments by Circle and our global ecosystem of thousands of partners have delivered the net result of providing the world's most trusted and available digital dollar infrastructure," he posted on X, adding that his firm does "not intend to slow down."

As it stands, USDC is the second-largest stablecoin and the fifth-largest crypto token overall, with a market cap of more than $73 billion. Only Tether's USDT ranks higher among stablecoins, with a $184 billion market cap.

Circle shares rebounded somewhat on Wednesday, gaining 3% to trade around $64.55. Nevertheless, CRCL shares—which skyrocketed upon their public debut last year—are down more than 18% over the last six months and more than 75% off their 52-week high of $262.97.

In its Wednesday note, Clear Street set a 12-month price target for Circle at $157, representing a roughly 140% gain from its Wednesday trading price.