US consumer confidence hits four-month low of 48.1 in September; inflation expectations rise to 4.6%
The University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment index fell to 48.1, a four-month low, down 7% from August. One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.6%, the highest since June, while the 5-10 year outlook rose to 3.4%. Rising energy prices, record diesel costs, and mortgage rates above 7% drove broad-based pessimism across all demographic and political groups. The economic outlook index hit its lowest since 2022.
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Common ground
- The 48.1 consumer sentiment reading is deep in recession territory and beating a low forecast by half a point doesn't change that.
- The jump in inflation expectations to 4.6% is a serious concern that the Fed can't ignore.
- Consumers are buying durable goods out of fear of future price hikes, not genuine optimism.
- Both the U.S. and China face significant domestic economic challenges.
Points of contention
- Whether the U.S. economy is still propped up by stimulus or standing on its own feet.
- Whether the inflation expectations jump is a systemic crisis or mainly driven by volatile gas prices.
- Whether China's economic troubles are a temporary transition or a sign of deeper problems.
- Whether consumer pessimism significantly limits U.S. foreign policy and global power projection.
Blind spots
- Both sides overlook that the sentiment drop is worse for future expectations than current conditions, signaling a likely spending pullback.
- The debate ignores how panic buying to beat inflation actually fuels more inflation, creating a self-fulfilling cycle.
- Neither side fully addresses that the Fed is trapped between needing to hike rates to control expectations and risking a recession that would break the labor market.
WorldAttention’s read
The 48.1 consumer sentiment reading is a yellow flag, not a red one—it shows the U.S. economy is stagnating with inflation risk, not collapsing or recovering. The jump in inflation expectations is partly driven by gas prices but still signals consumers don't trust the Fed. Both sides used the data to push geopolitical narratives: one claiming American decline and Chinese superiority, the other defending a soft landing story. The truth is messier—both economies have serious headwinds, and using one data point to declare victory for either side is misleading. The real takeaway is that consumers are caught in a trap where fear of higher prices drives behavior that makes inflation worse, and the Fed has no easy way out without causing a recession.
Reporting timeline
US Consumer Confidence Plunges in September as Inflation Expectations Surge
The University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment index fell to 48.1, a 7% decline from August and slightly above the market consensus of 47.8. The survey revealed a sharp rise in one-year inflation expectations to 4.6%, the highest since June, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that respondents across all political affiliations grew more pessimistic about the economy, with confidence among Republicans dropping 20% since January and Democrats falling 13% over the same period. The expectations index plunged 10.1% from August, while the current conditions index edged lower. The data indicates worsening consumer outlook amid elevated inflation concerns.
Read sourceUS Consumer Confidence Falls to Four-Month Low in September; Inflation Expectations Rise
The University of Michigan's final survey data for September shows U.S. consumer confidence fell to 48.1, the lowest level in four months, driven by rising energy prices and persistent inflation. Short-term inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 4.6% from 4% in August, while the 5-10 year outlook climbed to 3.4%, the highest since May. The survey, conducted from August 25 to September 21, reveals broad-based pessimism across demographic groups, with the economic outlook index hitting its lowest since 2022. Consumers' views on their personal finances also worsened. Although the index for durable goods buying conditions improved slightly, survey director Joanne Hsu attributed this to consumers rushing purchases to avoid future price hikes, not to increased confidence. High diesel and gasoline prices, along with mortgage rates above 7%, are adding to household financial strain, threatening the consumer spending that has supported economic growth.
Read sourceUS Consumer Confidence Falls to Four-Month Low in September; Inflation Expectations Rise
According to a report by Zhitong Finance, citing the University of Michigan's final survey data, US consumer confidence fell to 48.1 in September, the lowest level in four months, down from August. The decline was driven by rising energy prices, which exacerbated household concerns over the cost of living. Consumers' short-term inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 4.6% from 4% in August, while the 5-10 year annual inflation outlook increased to 3.4%, the highest since May. The survey, conducted from August 25 to September 21, also showed that the economic outlook index dropped to its lowest since 2022, and consumers' views on their personal finances worsened. Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, noted that consumers across all demographic groups agreed the economic outlook had deteriorated. Despite a slight improvement in willingness to buy durable goods, Hsu attributed this to consumers rushing purchases to avoid future price increases rather than increased confidence. High diesel and gasoline prices, along with mortgage rates exceeding 7%, continue to pressure household budgets.
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Michigan September Consumer Sentiment Index Comes in at 48.1, Above 47.5 Forecast
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September was reported at 48.1, according to a dispatch from financial news outlet Cailianshe on September 25. This reading exceeded the market expectation of 47.5. The index is a key gauge of U.S. consumer confidence and is closely watched for signals about spending and economic outlook. The data point suggests a slightly more optimistic view among consumers than analysts had anticipated for the month.
Read sourceUS September Consumer Sentiment Index Final at 48.1, Above Forecast of 47.6
The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for September 2023 came in at 48.1, slightly above both the forecast of 47.6 and the preliminary reading of 47.8. The data, released by financial data provider Jin10, indicates a marginal improvement in US consumer confidence compared to expectations, though the index remains at historically low levels. The report is a key economic indicator reflecting household attitudes toward the economy and spending intentions.
US September Michigan Consumer Expectations Index Final at 46.3, Above Forecast
The University of Michigan's final reading of the Consumer Expectations Index for September came in at 46.3, according to data from Jin10. This figure exceeded the market forecast of 45.7 and was higher than the previous month's final reading of 45.8. The index measures consumers' outlook on the economy over the next six months and is a closely watched indicator of consumer sentiment. The slight improvement suggests a marginal uptick in consumer optimism compared to expectations, though the level remains historically low, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the broader economic outlook.
US September Michigan Current Conditions Index Final at 50.9, Above 49.5 Forecast
The University of Michigan's final reading of the US Consumer Sentiment Current Conditions Index for September came in at 50.9, unchanged from the preliminary reading and above the market forecast of 49.5. The index measures consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, including their personal finances and buying conditions for durable goods. The final figure indicates that consumer sentiment regarding the present economic situation remained stable during the month, slightly better than economists had anticipated. The data is closely watched by financial markets as a gauge of consumer confidence and spending intentions.
University of Michigan September Consumer Sentiment Index at 48.1, Above 47.5 Forecast
The University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer sentiment index came in at 48.1, according to a report from East Money citing financial news outlet Cailian Press. This reading exceeded the market expectation of 47.5. The index is a key gauge of U.S. consumer confidence and economic outlook. The data point suggests a slight improvement in consumer mood compared to analyst forecasts, though the level remains historically low, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the broader economic environment. The report was sourced from East Money's macro research section, which aggregates economic indicators for investors.
Read sourceUS Consumer Confidence Falls to Four-Month Low in September; Inflation Expectations Rise
The University of Michigan's final survey data for September shows US consumer confidence fell to 48.1, the lowest level in four months, driven by rising energy prices and persistent inflation. Short-term inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 4.6% from 4% in August, while the 5-10 year outlook increased to 3.4%, the highest since May. Diesel prices hit a record high and gasoline prices continued climbing, exacerbating household cost-of-living concerns. Mortgage rates exceeded 7%, the highest in over two years, further straining homebuyers. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that consumers across all demographic and political groups agreed the economic outlook had worsened. The index measuring expectations for the year ahead fell to its lowest since 2022, and assessments of personal finances also deteriorated. While durable goods buying conditions improved slightly, Hsu attributed this to consumers accelerating purchases to avoid future price increases rather than improved confidence. The survey was conducted from August 25 to September 21.
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