Tax rises ‘guaranteed’ as Healey faces £22bn black hole from Burnham spending plans

Chancellor John Healey is expected to announce major tax rises in the autumn after a City AM analysis revealed £22bn in uncosted spending pledges from Prime Minister Andy Burnham's administration. The pledges include ending rough sleeping and removing VAT from energy bills, adding to commitments inherited from Keir Starmer. Economists warn that a third consecutive tax-raising budget would damage business confidence. The £22bn figure does not include other costly proposals such as unfreezing personal allowances, nationalising Thames Water, or increasing foreign aid, which could add at least £45bn. Healey is constrained by fiscal rules and manifesto promises not to raise income tax, VAT, or employee national insurance, leaving limited options to generate revenue. The analysis highlights the tension between spending ambitions and fiscal discipline, with markets and investors skeptical that many commitments will be fulfilled.