Roku Platform Revenue Growth Forecast Raised to 25% on Political Ads and World Cup

Investment bank Jefferies projects that Roku Inc. could achieve 25% year-over-year platform revenue growth in fiscal 2026, surpassing the company's current guidance of approximately 21%. This optimistic outlook is primarily driven by anticipated spikes in political advertising spending and increased viewership associated with the World Cup. Analysts believe these factors, combined with improving ad fill rates, could push Roku's EBITDA to around $775 million, significantly higher than the Street consensus of $679 million. The firm noted that Roku's second-quarter guidance appeared conservative, particularly regarding subscription revenue deceleration. Looking beyond immediate catalysts, Jefferies highlighted long-term growth vectors such as Roku's new home screen with biddable ad tiles, small business ad tools, and international expansion. Despite the bullish upside scenario, Jefferies maintains its base-case estimates at 21% revenue growth and $676 million EBITDA, retaining a Buy rating with a $150 price target. The analysis emphasizes that while elections and sports provide short-term boosts, the long-term investment thesis relies on structural improvements in ad inventory and subscription conversions.