Patrick English: Badenoch's positioning on Net Zero is brave – because the numbers are not really in her favour
Dr Patrick English, Director of Political Analytics at YouGov, analyzes Kemi Badenoch's recent move to purge Conservative MPs and candidates who support Net Zero commitments or the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). While the move projects strength and has boosted Tory polling from mid-teens to near 2024 election levels, English argues it carries significant electoral risks. YouGov polling shows 63% of the public support maintaining Net Zero commitments and 46% support staying in the ECHR, while only 29% oppose each. Crucially, 48% of 2024 Conservative voters support Net Zero and 27% support the ECHR, meaning the purge alienates half the party's own base. English warns this mirrors Labour's ill-fated purge of its left flank between 2023-2026, which cost Keir Starmer his premiership. The Tories had recovered by attacking Labour on economy and competence, but pivoting to divisive internal issues risks fracturing their coalition and benefiting Reform UK.
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