Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season Projected to Be Most Active Since 2015

Commercial forecaster Tropical Storm Risk predicts that typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean will reach its highest level since 2015 during the 2026 season. The outlook indicates activity levels 25% above the historical average, driven by an emerging El Niño phenomenon and stronger-than-normal westerly winds. Specifically, the forecast anticipates the formation of 18 typhoons, with 11 classified as intense, significantly exceeding the 10-year averages of 14.2 total typhoons and 8.4 intense ones. This projection contrasts sharply with the below-average 2025 season, which saw activity roughly 35% below normal yet still produced destructive storms like Typhoon Ragasa that caused extensive damage and fatalities in the Philippines, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts corroborates the expectation of an above-normal storm count for the summer. In contrast, the Atlantic Ocean is expected to experience a relatively quiet hurricane season. As Asia’s typhoon season typically spans from June to October, these findings highlight significant potential risks for infrastructure and populations in the region, despite the lower overall global tropical cyclone activity predicted for other basins.