El Niño Development Expected May-June 2026, Likely to Persist Through Year-End and Impact Monsoon
The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported in its May 11 ENSO update that El Niño conditions are likely to emerge during the May-June period of 2026 and persist until the end of the year. This development follows a period of ENSO neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with the Relative Oceanic Niño Index recorded at -0.5 degrees Celsius for February-April. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which had previously forecast below-average seasonal rainfall for India in April, anticipates that only 92 percent of the seasonal average rainfall will occur between June and September. El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is historically linked to below-average rainfall and extreme heat in India. The phenomenon is determined by sea surface temperature departures in the Niño 3.4 region, where values above +0.5 degrees Celsius indicate El Niño conditions. Global weather models have warned of this impending shift for several months, raising concerns about potential impacts on agriculture and water resources due to subdued monsoon performance.
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