Mine Restarts Drive West Africa Gold Production Recovery in 2026
West Africa’s gold sector is projected to rebound by 8.0% in 2026 following a 2.4% decline in 2025, driven primarily by mine restarts and new project ramp-ups. Ghana, the region's largest producer, expects marginal growth supported by Newmont’s Ahafo North and Shandong Gold’s Namdini, despite policy tightening and mature asset declines. Mali is forecast to see a significant 28% production increase due to the resolution of disputes at Loulo-Gounkoto, although security risks persist. Guinea’s output will rise with the Kiniero Gold Mine ramp-up, while Burkina Faso anticipates a 7% boost from the Kiaka project. Emerging markets like Ivory Coast are gaining prominence, with Ivory Coast potentially becoming the third-largest producer. However, long-term challenges remain, including scheduled mine closures post-2030 in Guinea and Burkina Faso, security instability in Mali, and regulatory changes in Ghana aimed at increasing state value capture. The recovery is uneven, with specific operational improvements offsetting broader structural and geopolitical risks across the region.
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