Indian Cities Face High Risk from Impending Super El Nino
India is bracing for a potentially historic Super El Nino event expected to develop in the Pacific Ocean by mid-2026, significantly impacting the upcoming monsoon season. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that southwest monsoon rainfall will likely be below normal, reaching only 92% of the long-period average, with a 35% probability of deficient rainfall. This weather phenomenon is predicted to cause severe droughts and agricultural losses in northern, western, and central regions, including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and parts of Madhya Pradesh, particularly during August and September. Conversely, coastal areas such as Chennai in Tamil Nadu and parts of Andhra Pradesh face the risk of heavy rainfall and potential flooding, mirroring the destructive patterns seen during the 2015-16 El Nino. Climate scientists warn that this event could rival the severity of previous major occurrences, urging local authorities to prepare for disparate weather impacts ranging from water scarcity to inundation. The forecast highlights the vulnerability of India’s rain-dependent agriculture and the need for strategic disaster management to mitigate consequences.
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