Experts Warn Pakistan Vulnerable to Water Shortages Amid Treaty Tensions

Experts warn that Pakistan faces severe vulnerability to seasonal water shortages, possessing storage capacity for only 30 days of river flow. Dr. Baqir Hussain and Abbas Raza highlight the 'weaponisation of water' as a critical threat to the Indus Waters Treaty, which has historically sustained peace between Pakistan and India. With per-capita water availability dropping below scarcity thresholds, the convergence of energy shortages, water scarcity, and food insecurity poses unprecedented risks to Pakistan’s agriculture-dependent economy. Nearly 90 percent of Pakistani agriculture relies on the Indus River system, supporting millions of livelihoods. While India lacks infrastructure to completely halt flows, even limited disruptions during low-water periods could cause significant damage. Climate change further exacerbates these risks through erratic glacier melting and shifting seasonal patterns. The experts urge Pakistan to utilize dispute-resolution mechanisms under the treaty, including potential legal action at the International Court of Justice, while intensifying diplomatic engagement. They emphasize that cooperation is essential for regional stability, given the treaty's role in ensuring food security and economic resilience for South Asia’s large population.