HeXun analysts advise caution as A-shares enter final pre-holiday trading days
Multiple HeXun Information analysts advise Chinese investors to avoid chasing rallies and reduce positions ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Analysts cite tightening liquidity, fund withdrawals for reverse repos, and external market volatility as key factors. They recommend keeping positions under 50%, focusing on AI hardware, semiconductors, and defensive sectors, and waiting until after the holiday to re-enter the market. Historical data shows a 67% win rate for the last two trading days before the holiday and an 80% win rate for the five days after.
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Analyst Li Jingfeng: 3 Trading Days Left, Where Is A-Share Market Headed?
With only three trading sessions remaining before China's National Day holiday, HeXun Information analyst Li Jingfeng provides a multi-dimensional outlook on the A-share market. He notes that while U.S. stocks strengthened during the A-share holiday break, the rebound was on shrinking volume, suggesting potential volatility ahead. However, external markets are not expected to be a significant negative factor for A-shares in the remaining days. Domestically, Thursday's pullback was also on reduced volume, indicating a possible weak rebound targeting the 60-day moving average. Trading activity is likely to thin ahead of the holiday, so near-term expectations should be tempered. On heavyweight stocks like Zhongji Innolight, Li observes a contraction pattern after touching the 60-day moving average, with volume declining on pullbacks, suggesting a corrective wave rather than a deep decline. He maintains a medium-term upward view for AI hardware and ChiNext index heavyweights, though near-term gains may be limited. After the holiday, the third-quarter earnings season begins, and AI hardware remains the most likely sector for earnings surprises. Li advises investors not to overreact to short-term fluctuations and to focus on medium-term trends.
Read sourceHexun Analyst Dong Kai: Last Three Days Before Holiday, Buy Low or Wait and See?
In a market commentary article published by Stockstar, Hexun Information analyst Dong Kai addresses the key question for investors ahead of China's National Day holiday: whether to buy stocks or stay on the sidelines during the final three trading days. The analysis weighs two weekend signals: positive global markets (US stocks rising, Apple hitting a record high, semiconductor strength in Japan and Korea) versus tight domestic liquidity conditions, with over 100 billion yuan in market cap set to be unlocked, the FTSE A50 futures delivery date on September 29, and end-of-quarter institutional assessments. Dong predicts the market may open higher on Monday but could quickly decline due to funding constraints, with a potential buying opportunity near the 3861-point support level. He cites historical probabilities: a roughly 67% win rate for the last two trading days before the holiday and an 80% win rate for the five days after, with the final trading day closing positive in 18 of the last 26 years. However, he emphasizes discipline over probability, recommending investors keep positions under 50% and avoid chasing rallies. His five preferred sectors are semiconductors and optical communications in tech, AI computing hardware, pharmaceuticals in consumer, power grids in stable-growth sectors, and banks and coal as dividend-yielding positions. He concludes that holding stocks through the holiday is a bet on probability, while holding cash offers peace of mind, noting the period may be one of the year's few low-entry windows for those willing to accept some volatility.
Read sourceAnalyst Xu Binjing: Avoid Pre-Holiday Trading Bets as Funds Exit Early for National Day
In a market commentary published on Tencent News, analyst Xu Binjing of Hexun Information advises against participating in so-called 'cross-holiday' trading strategies ahead of China's National Day holiday. Xu notes that while the market has identified potential high-performing stocks for the period, the risk of deliberately trading for a holiday rally is high. The core market dynamic, according to Xu, is a 'high-level holding' pattern that has persisted since the El Niño-driven rally in sectors like agriculture, consumer goods, and power. However, this holding pattern is now weakening and diverging. Xu explains that traders typically move funds into reverse repurchase agreements one to two days before a long holiday, and because everyone expects an early exit, the actual exodus happens even sooner. He identifies September 23 and 24 as the primary days for fund withdrawal. Consequently, Xu recommends that investors avoid the cross-holiday gamble and wait to re-enter the market after the holiday period ends.
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Hexun Analyst Xu Binqing: Should Investors Chase Pre-Holiday Rally?
In a market commentary article, Hexun Information analyst Xu Binqing advises against chasing a so-called 'cross-holiday' rally ahead of China's National Day holiday. Xu notes that the market's high-profile 'cross-holiday' stocks are already well-known to most participants, making late-stage participation risky. The analyst identifies the current market's core theme as 'high-level holding' (high-conviction positions), with daily sector rotations—such as CRO, real estate, technology, and CPO—being short-term phenomena. However, Xu warns that this holding pattern is weakening and diverging, as funds typically exit for reverse repo operations one to two days before the extended Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. Given that many funds are expected to have already withdrawn on September 23-24, Xu concludes that it is too late to profitably participate in the pre-holiday game and recommends waiting until after the holiday to re-enter the market.
Read sourceHexun Analyst Xiong Wei: Pre-Holiday Market Reversal, What Will Happen After the Mid-Autumn Festival?
Hexun Information analyst Xiong Wei analyzed that the pre-holiday trading day was a turning point, with the market initially choosing to release selling pressure downward. He attributes this not purely to bearish sentiment but to funds reducing short-term uncertainty ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, compounded by external headwinds from a US stock pullback and rising US bond yields. Xiong argues the sell-off is an emotional, market-wide decline rather than sector-specific, and that the key question is whether the market can form a new upward force. He notes A-shares' advantages remain: capital is still present, and industrial themes like AI computing, domestic substitution, and high-end manufacturing are intact. However, overheated sectors may need a rotation. He flags US-China relations as a key variable, with stable cooperation expectations potentially boosting global risk appetite. Xiong advises investors not to panic or get excited prematurely, but to wait for post-holiday capital flows to reveal which sectors (especially tech) can recover quickly, indicating whether the sell-off was just emotional. If the market remains directionless and low-volume, a consolidation phase is likely.
Read sourceHeXun Analyst Wang Zhao Advises Caution, Says Market Divergence to Continue Before Holiday
In a brief market commentary, HeXun Information analyst Wang Zhao reiterates his cautious stance, advising investors to 'keep their hands off' ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. He notes that the market experienced the expected major divergence on the day of the report and forecasts that this divergence will persist for at least another day. Wang advises against trading before the holiday, but reassures that the next two months will present a major short-term trading opportunity. He identifies the period after the Mid-Autumn Festival as a favorable entry point for investors. The commentary reflects a short-term bearish view on immediate trading but a bullish outlook for the medium term, specifically the two-month window starting after the holiday.
Read sourceAnalyst Li Faliang Urges Calm, Warns Against Chasing Highs in Pre-Holiday Market
In a market commentary piece, HeXun Information analyst Li Faliang advises investors to remain calm and avoid blindly chasing price highs as the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday approaches. He notes that the market has rebounded over 100 points from 3,840, with daily lows and highs moving upward, creating a manageable trading environment as long as one does not chase rallies. Li expects low volatility in the final two trading days before the holiday and assesses a low probability of a sharp drop, citing the upcoming September 25th key time node. He recommends keeping positions under half and suggests active trading (buying dips and selling rallies) for stocks with clear catalysts, rather than holding passively. Li specifically warns against chasing 'Hua' themed stocks, which have seen strong gains including a four-day consecutive limit-up in the pharmaceutical sector, advising holders to sell into strength. He also highlights the agricultural and zodiac-themed sectors ahead of October, noting that the Year of the Goat (2015) concept has already seen multiple limit-ups, and advises waiting for pullbacks to buy rather than chasing rallies. Li distinguishes between trading hot sectors (buying leaders early) and anticipated themes (buying on dips), cautioning against buying weaker stocks in hot sectors.
Read sourceHeXun Analyst Shen Lei: Pre-Holiday Strategy for Mid-Autumn and National Day Break
On September 23, HeXun Information analyst Shen Lei addressed investor concerns about appropriate仓位 levels ahead of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. Noting the market's recent平淡 performance and low trading volume, Shen stated that while a sharp rally before the holidays is unlikely, the current market position is already at a year-to-date low, with clear signs of bottoming. He advised against excessive pessimism or reducing positions too aggressively due to holiday uncertainty. Shen recommended retaining core holdings in low-position sectors that have not yet rallied, while taking profits in sectors that have recently experienced short-term rotation gains, describing this as a window for the market to distribute 'holiday bonuses.' He cautioned against blindly selling low-position chips just to reduce exposure, suggesting that holding such positions through the holiday is generally acceptable.
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