Will Missouri enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Missouri enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 87%.; As of October 12, 2026, the supplied evidence does not mention any statewide data center moratorium legislation or executive action in Missouri. The evidence focuses on Maine's statewide ban (pausing approvals for data centers over 20 MW until November 2027) and similar measures in New York State, New Orleans, Madison, and other localities, but none involve Missouri. Therefore, these reports cannot establish that Missouri will enact such a moratorium by the end of 2027. The key uncertainty is whether Missouri will introduce relevant legislation or executive orders, and whether they would explicitly restrict grid access for large AI infrastructure.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 87%.; The supplied evidence concerns only Maine's statewide data center moratorium (pausing projects over 20 MW until November 2027) and a federal AI Data Center Moratorium Act proposal, with no mention of any Missouri legislative or executive action. Thus, these reports do not establish that Missouri will enact a similar statewide moratorium by the end of 2027. The key uncertainty is whether Missouri has or will have relevant legislative developments, which the evidence does not address.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 89%.; The available evidence concerns only Maine's statewide data center moratorium, with no mention of Missouri legislation or executive action. Maine's bill pauses approvals for data centers over 20 MW until November 2027 and establishes a committee to assess impacts, but that state is not Missouri. Thus, these reports do not establish that Missouri will enact a similar moratorium by the end of 2027. The key uncertainty is whether Missouri has proposed or advanced such legislation, but the evidence provides no information on that.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 88%.; The available evidence concerns statewide data center moratoriums in Maine and New York, with no mention of Missouri. These reports do not establish that Missouri has enacted or is considering such a moratorium, nor whether it will do so by the end of 2027. The key uncertainty is whether Missouri will introduce relevant legislation, but current evidence provides no information on this.