Will Ohio enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Ohio enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 81%.; As of October 2026, Ohio has not enacted a statewide data center moratorium. Governor Mike DeWine signed an executive order in June 2026 pausing new tax exemptions for data centers, but this order only affects tax incentives, not construction, and does not affect already-approved projects. Maine passed a similar moratorium bill in April 2026, but it is not yet signed into law and does not apply to Ohio. The supplied evidence does not show that Ohio has passed or signed any statewide data center construction moratorium, nor does it provide specific progress on legislative consideration of such a bill. Therefore, there is no direct evidence supporting the enactment of a statewide moratorium by the end of 2027.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 85%.; Ohio has paused new data center tax incentives but has not enacted a statewide construction moratorium. In June 2026, the governor announced a pause on tax incentives, with 2025 tax losses near $1.6 billion, far exceeding expectations; residents are also pushing a ballot initiative to permanently ban large data centers. Maine passed a similar moratorium in April 2026, but no such legislation has passed in Ohio. The evidence does not show that Ohio has enacted or signed a statewide moratorium, nor does it provide a specific timeline or legislative progress toward one by end-2027.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 85%.; As of October 2026, Ohio has not enacted a statewide data center moratorium. Governor Mike DeWine signed an executive order in June 2026 pausing new tax exemptions for data centers, but this order only concerns tax incentives, not a construction moratorium, and does not affect already-approved projects. Additionally, reports indicate residents are pursuing a ballot initiative to permanently ban large data centers, but as of the evidence's publication, no statewide moratorium has been clearly passed or signed. The evidence establishes only an executive tax pause and grassroots efforts, not a legislative or signed statewide construction moratorium.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 82%.; As of October 2026, Ohio has paused new data center tax exemptions via executive order, but has not enacted a statewide moratorium on data center construction. Governor DeWine signed an executive order in June 2026 suspending new tax subsidies, citing fiscal losses far exceeding projections (actual 2025 losses near $1.6 billion vs. original estimate of $136 million). The order only affects new applications; approved projects are unaffected. Separately, Maine passed a similar moratorium bill in April 2026, but it awaits the governor's signature and is not Ohio. The supplied evidence does not show that Ohio has passed or signed a statewide construction moratorium, nor does it provide specific information on legislative progress toward such a measure. Thus, as of the report date, the outcome remains uncertain and depends on future legislative actions.