Question trackingResolved
Does 99.95% Over 9.5 games in Wuhan Open first set signal arbitrage?
With the probability of over 9.5 games in the first set between Yastremska and Bucsa at the Wuhan Open priced at 99.95%, does this indicate the market has fully priced in the outcome, or are there arbitrage or information asymmetry opportunities?
Closing recap
Across 2 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows Yastremska vs. Bucsa: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
Yastremska vs. Bucsa: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Closed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market refers to the tennis match between Dayana Yastremska and Cristina Bucsa in the Wuhan Tennis Open, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dayana Yastremska' if Dayana Yastremska advances against Cristina Bucsa. This market will resolve to 'Cristina Bucsa' if Cristina Bucsa advances against Dayana Yastremska. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.