Will Oklahoma enact data center moratorium by end of 2027?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Oklahoma enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 84%.; The available evidence focuses on moratorium proposals in other states and at the federal level, with no specific information about Oklahoma enacting a statewide data center moratorium. The New York, Maine, and federal proposals do not directly involve Oklahoma, and the Maine bill's prospects are uncertain. Therefore, these reports cannot establish that Oklahoma will enact such a moratorium by the end of 2027, nor can they confirm that no action has been taken. The key uncertainty is whether Oklahoma has any relevant legislative or executive initiatives, but the evidence does not mention them.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 82%.; The supplied evidence covers data center moratorium proposals in New York, Maine, and at the federal level, but contains no information specific to Oklahoma. Therefore, these reports do not establish that Oklahoma has introduced or enacted a statewide data center moratorium, nor do they indicate whether one will be enacted by the end of 2027. The key uncertainty is whether any such legislative activity will emerge in Oklahoma, which the current evidence does not address.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 83%.; The supplied evidence focuses on data center moratorium efforts in other states (New York, Maine) and at the federal level, with no specific mention of Oklahoma. Maine's bill awaits the governor's signature, New York's bill has uncertain prospects, and the federal bill is considered unlikely to pass. These reports do not establish any legislative or executive action in Oklahoma, so they cannot confirm whether the state will enact a moratorium by the end of 2027. The key uncertainty is whether Oklahoma has or will introduce such a proposal, and whether grid or environmental concerns will drive state-level action.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 83%.; As of October 2026, the supplied evidence does not mention any Oklahoma legislative or executive action on a data center moratorium. The reports focus on other states: New York lawmakers proposed a moratorium (February 2026), Maine passed a bill awaiting the governor's signature (April 2026), and a federal bill was introduced (May 2026). This evidence does not establish that Oklahoma has taken similar action, nor that it has not. The key uncertainty is whether Oklahoma will enact such a moratorium by end-2027, but the reports provide no signal on this.
6. Oct 16, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with our estimated probability of 81%.; As of October 2026, multiple reports indicate Oklahoma has proposed data center moratorium or restriction bills, but none mention passage or gubernatorial signing. Maine has enacted a similar law, but Oklahoma's specific progress is unclear. Thus, the evidence cannot establish that a statewide moratorium will be enacted by end-2027, nor can it rule it out. The key uncertainty is whether the bill can pass and be signed during the 2027 regular session.