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Does Overtake's 99.95% with postponement rule misprice risk?
In the CS2 ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 playoffs, Overtake is priced at 99.95% to win Map 1, yet the match has been postponed with a rescheduling deadline of October 26. If the match ultimately does not take place, the market resolves 50-50—does this indicate a mispricing of cancellation risk in prediction markets?
Closing recap
Across 2 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows Counter-Strike: Overtake vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
Counter-Strike: Overtake vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 WinnerClosed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Semifinal match between Overtake and Iowa Stormboar in the ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Overtake" if Overtake win the match against Iowa Stormboar. This market will resolve to "Iowa Stormboar" if Iowa Stormboar win the match against Overtake. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, pr
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.