All tracked questions
TechnologyResolved
Will Google release Gemini 4.0 to the public by October 23, 2026?
Closing recap
Across 3 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026? 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?Closed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
- — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 73%.; As of October 13, 2026, the evidence shows that Google released Gemini 4 Argon on October 1, 2026, but the release was limited to an initial group of cybersecurity partners in a gray-scale rollout, not open to the public. The reports explicitly mention 'gray-scale rollout' and 'first batch of cybersecurity partners,' with no mention of public accessibility. Therefore, the current evidence does not establish that Gemini 4.0 has been publicly released. The key uncertainty is whether Google will expand access or formally open it to the public before the deadline of October 23, 2026.
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.