Likelihood of US ending Iran naval blockade by Oct 15?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 74%.; The evidence shows that on June 18, 2026, U.S. Central Command announced the lifting of the naval blockade on Iran, and the Pakistani Prime Minister stated the U.S. would immediately lift the blockade, with a memorandum of understanding committing the U.S. to gradually lift it within 30 days, and Trump ordering full lifting on June 18. However, an October 12 report states the blockade 'has not yet been lifted' and mentions U.S. sanctions on Iran-related oil shipping vessels on October 8, contradicting the June announcement. Thus, the evidence cannot confirm whether the blockade was officially lifted by the deadline; the key uncertainty is whether subsequent official statements lifted or reinstated it.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 73%.; As of October 13, 2026, the evidence indicates that U.S. officials (e.g., President, Department of Defense, CENTCOM) have announced the lifting of the naval blockade on Iran. A June 18 Xinhua report stated the U.S. would immediately lift the blockade; a July 1 report quoted Iran's parliament speaker saying the U.S. had fully lifted it, citing a CENTCOM announcement on June 18. However, October 12 and 13 reports still describe the blockade as 'not yet lifted' or 'military threats remain,' contradicting the earlier announcements. Thus, evidence supports that an official announcement occurred, but later reports reduce certainty. The key uncertainty is whether the blockade was reimposed or the announcement rescinded, which the evidence does not clarify.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 63%.; Reports from June 18-19, 2026 indicate that after the U.S. and Iranian presidents signed a memorandum of understanding, U.S. Central Command announced the lifting of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, with full removal within 30 days. However, reports from October 12-13, 2026 state that the blockade has not yet been lifted, and the U.S. imposed sanctions on Iranian railway companies, with negotiations ongoing. These conflicting reports leave uncertainty about whether the blockade was officially declared lifted before the deadline.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 86%.; Multiple reports indicate that U.S. Central Command announced the lifting of the naval blockade on Iran on June 18 or 19, 2026, ceasing all blockade operations. One encyclopedia entry explicitly records this announcement, and a news article corroborates the event. However, an October 13 report states that as of that date, public information did not yet prove Iran had accepted all U.S. demands, suggesting the agreement's conditions may not have been fully met. Another October 15 report mentions a U.S. commitment to lift the blockade but does not clarify whether that commitment was executed. Overall, the evidence strongly supports that the blockade was lifted before the deadline, though some reports present inconsistent descriptions of the agreement's implementation status, creating minor uncertainty.