Question trackingResolved
Is the 89.5% probability of Chengdu's Oct 13 high of 29°C abnormal compared to historical climate?
The Polymarket prediction gives an 89.5% probability that Chengdu's highest temperature on October 13 will be 29°C—how does this forecast compare to historical climate norms for the date?
Closing recap
Across 2 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 13? 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on October 13?Closed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, public baseline will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.