2026 midterms: Probability Democrats win 6+ House seats in Tennessee?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Tennessee in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Tennessee US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
2. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 95%.; The available evidence indicates that Tennessee remains strongly Republican in the 2026 House elections: in the December 2025 TN-7 special election, Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Afteen Bain to retain the seat, and an August 2026 report covers the state primary. None of these materials provide any indication that Democrats could win six or more seats in Tennessee. Thus, this report does not establish that Democrats will reach the six-seat threshold, but it also cannot rule out that outcome based solely on this evidence. The key uncertainty is the final official result of the November 3 general election.
3. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 95%.; The available evidence indicates Tennessee remains a strongly Republican state in the 2026 midterms: in the December 2025 TN-7 special election, Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Afteen Bain to hold the seat, and contemporaneous reporting showed Republicans leading Democrats 220-213 in the House. An August 2026 state primary report provides no specific indication that Democrats will win six or more seats in Tennessee. These facts suggest a low likelihood of Democrats winning at least six Tennessee House seats, but the evidence does not directly address the final outcome across all nine seats, so that result cannot be entirely ruled out.
4. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 96%.; The available evidence indicates Tennessee remains a strongly Republican state in the 2026 midterms: in the December 2025 TN-7 special election, Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Afteen Bain to retain the seat, and the August 2026 state primary report provides only electoral context without suggesting Democratic strength in Tennessee. However, these reports do not provide the final results of the November 3, 2026 general election, nor do they clarify Democrats' actual competitiveness in each Tennessee district, so they cannot directly confirm whether Democrats will win at least 6 seats. The key uncertainty lies in the final official results on Election Day and whether Democrats overperform expectations in Tennessee.