Will Meta's 'Watermelon' model be released by Oct 15, 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 83%.; As of October 12, 2026, available reports indicate that Meta's Watermelon model is in intensive development and expected to debut in October 2026, but the company has not yet clarified whether it will be integrated into the Llama series or released as a standalone model. Meta CEO Zuckerberg confirmed plans to release the model, and the Chief AI Officer stated development is progressing smoothly, but no specific release date or public availability details were provided. These reports do not establish that Watermelon has been publicly released by October 15, nor do they indicate any delay or cancellation. Thus, the evidence is insufficient to confirm a public release by the deadline, with the key uncertainty being whether Meta will announce and open the model on or before October 15.
3. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.