Will the US-Iran ceasefire hold through October 31, 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrenc
2. Oct 16, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with our estimated probability of 66%.; Evidence shows the US-Iran ceasefire, initiated in April 2026, remains in effect but as of mid-October is in a 'dangerous de-escalation phase,' with no comprehensive peace agreement and Iran's seven conditions not fully accepted by the US. An October 10 report describes the ceasefire as 'effective but extremely fragile,' with negotiations at a critical juncture. These facts support the possibility of the ceasefire lasting through October 31, but its fragility raises the risk of breakdown. No large-scale military conflict or formal termination has been reported, but such events cannot be ruled out in the remaining two weeks.