Will Texas pass statewide data center moratorium by end-2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Texas enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 59%.; As of September 21, 2026, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the state environmental quality commission to indefinitely suspend all new data center permit approvals, pending grid and water audits. These executive actions indicate a state-level pause is in effect, but the question requires a statewide moratorium to be enacted by December 31, 2026. The evidence does not clarify whether this executive order will be formally codified as legislation or an administrative rule, or whether it will remain in effect until the deadline. Thus, the reports support that a pause is active, but do not confirm its formal enactment or long-term validity.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 57%.; Reports as of October 12, 2026, indicate that Texas Governor Greg Abbott on September 21, 2026, directed the state environmental quality commission to suspend all construction permits for new data centers, following an August 3 executive order suspending grid connection approvals. These administrative measures remain in effect, but the question asks whether a statewide data center moratorium was 'enacted,' and the evidence only shows executive actions, not whether they were formally established as a statewide moratorium or through legislation. Thus, the evidence supports the existence of administrative suspensions but does not fully establish that they meet the 'enactment' criterion; the key uncertainty is whether these orders remain in effect or are formalized by December 31, 2026.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 59%.; As of an October 12, 2026 report, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed an executive order on August 3, 2026, suspending approvals for new data centers to connect to the grid, and on September 21 further directed the state environmental quality commission to suspend all new construction permits pending a grid review. These executive actions remain in effect, but there is no evidence that they have been formally enacted as a statewide moratorium through legislation or other official action. Thus, the evidence supports administrative suspensions but does not clarify whether they meet the question's 'enactment' standard, and they could be revoked or expire before the deadline.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "Yes", with a our assessmentestimate of 51%.; As of mid-October 2026, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has issued executive directives pausing data center approvals: on August 3, new grid connection approvals were suspended, and on September 21, the state environmental quality commission was directed to suspend all new construction permits pending a grid review. These are executive actions; no evidence indicates they have been formally enacted as a statewide moratorium through legislation or executive action, nor whether they remain in effect through December 31, 2026. Thus, the evidence confirms administrative suspensions but does not establish their formal status or duration.