TechnologyTracking
Can Tesla's Roadster hit 2028 production?
Tesla's second-generation Roadster with SpaceX thrusters is targeted for 2028 production—can its aerial maneuvers and jump features pass regulatory approval and achieve mass production on schedule?
Watching: 监管机构对配备推进器的量产车安全标准尚未明确，且特斯拉过往车型多次推迟投产，2028年目标存在不确定性。
Current read
The most likely outcome is "No", with our estimated probability of 76%.
Our assessment
否
是
Evidence context
At an October 2026 Texas event, Tesla officially announced 2028 production for the second-gen Roadster, demonstrating aerial maneuvers with SpaceX cold-gas thrusters. Reports say it can be road-legal, but no specific regulatory approval progress (e.g., NHTSA) is mentioned. Given past delays, the timeline remains uncertain. Evidence is insufficient to confirm approval and production by end-2028.
Key developments
- New October 2026 event: Musk officially announced 2028 production and demonstrated aerial maneuvers.
Related facts and sources
Tesla officially announced 2028 production and demonstrated aerial maneuvers, but no regulatory approval progress is mentioned.
Reports claim road legality, but no approval details; past delays add uncertainty.
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: Tesla unveiled a redesigned second-generation Roadster equipped with SpaceX cold-gas thrusters at an event outside Waco, Texas, demonstrating mid-air maneuvers, an inverted ramp drive and a jump over several Tesla vehicles. CEO Elon Musk said production is targeted for 2028, with three variants planned and reservation deposits of 50,000 euros for Performance and 250,000 euros for Thrust. Engineering VP Lars Moravy said the car uses 10 nozzles connected to 600 liters of compressed air. The debut came almost nine years after the second-gen Roadster was first shown.
- — The most likely outcome is "No", with our estimated probability of 76%.; At an October 2026 Texas event, Tesla officially announced 2028 production for the second-gen Roadster, demonstrating aerial maneuvers with SpaceX cold-gas thrusters. Reports say it can be road-legal, but no specific regulatory approval progress (e.g., NHTSA) is mentioned. Given past delays, the timeline remains uncertain. Evidence is insufficient to confirm approval and production by end-2028.