Will AI labs solve two more Millennium Problems by end of 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announc
2. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 94%.; As of October 13, 2026, the evidence shows that OpenAI announced in September 2026 a solution to the Navier-Stokes equation (one Millennium Prize Problem), but the solution has not yet been recognized by the mathematical community, and OpenAI stated it does not intend to claim the Millennium Prize. This concerns only one problem, while the question requires two distinct problems to be solved and widely recognized. The evidence does not mention any other Millennium Prize Problem being solved or recognized, so a second solution cannot be confirmed. The key uncertainty is whether this solution will gain recognition by the deadline and whether a second problem will be solved and recognized.
3. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 93%.; As of October 14, 2026, the evidence shows that OpenAI announced in September 2026 a solution to the Navier-Stokes equation (one Millennium Prize Problem), but the solution has not yet been recognized by the mathematical community, and OpenAI stated it does not intend to claim the Millennium Prize. This concerns only one problem, while the question requires two different problems to be widely recognized. The available reports do not mention any solution or recognition of a second problem, so they cannot establish whether a second problem will be solved by the end of 2026.
4. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 93%.; As of mid-October 2026, evidence shows OpenAI announced in September 2026 that it had solved one Millennium Prize Problem, releasing 722 math manuscripts, but explicitly stated it would not claim the prize, and the solution has not yet received broad recognition from the mathematical community. Other reports mention progress by DeepMind and OpenAI on mathematical problems, but none address a second Millennium Prize Problem. Thus, current evidence supports at most one possible solution, insufficient to establish that two distinct problems have been solved and recognized.