TechnologyTracking
Will Texas enact moratorium on new large data centers by end of 2027?
Will Texas enact a statewide moratorium on new large data centers (e.g., those with over 100 MW interconnection capacity per facility) by the end of 2027?
Watching: 得州立法机构是否在2027年常规会期提出并推进暂停大型数据中心的法案。
Current read
The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 87%.
Our assessment
否
是
Evidence context
As of September 2026, Texas Governor Abbott has used executive orders to pause grid connection and environmental permits for new data centers, affecting about 50 GW of proposed capacity, but this is not legislation. The evidence does not show that the state legislature has passed and enacted a law to pause new large data centers, nor does it mention any related legislative progress. Thus, these reports cannot establish that a legislative moratorium will be enacted by end-2027; the key uncertainty is whether the legislature will act.
Related facts and sources
The governor paused data center approvals via executive orders, not legislation; evidence shows the pause covers grid connection and environmental permits, affecting about 50 GW of proposed capacity.
The reports do not mention any bill passed or enacted by the Texas legislature to pause new large data centers, so they cannot establish that a legislative moratorium will be in place by end-2027.
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Texas enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the
- — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 85%.; As of September 2026, Texas Governor Abbott has suspended grid connection and environmental permit approvals for new data centers via executive orders, affecting about 50 GW of planned capacity, but these are administrative actions, not legislation. The supplied evidence does not show that the state legislature has passed or enacted any bill to pause new large data centers. Thus, these reports cannot establish whether legislation will be enacted by the end of 2027; the key signal is legislative action in 2027.
- — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 86%.; As of September 2026, Texas Governor Abbott has imposed administrative moratoria on data center approvals: a grid connection pause in August and an environmental permit pause on September 21, affecting about 50 GW of planned capacity. However, these are executive actions, not legislation. The supplied reports do not indicate that the state legislature has passed or enacted any law to pause new large data centers, nor do they mention legislative progress. Thus, the evidence does not establish that a legislative moratorium has occurred; the key uncertainty is whether the legislature will act by end-2027.
- — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 87%.; As of September 2026, Texas Governor Abbott has used executive orders to pause grid connection and environmental permits for new data centers pending audits, affecting about 50 GW of planned capacity. However, the question requires legislation passed and enacted by the legislature, and the evidence only shows executive actions, with no mention of legislative steps. Thus, these reports do not establish that a legislative moratorium has occurred, nor do they prove it will not occur by end-2027. The key uncertainty is whether the legislature will act and whether the executive pause will translate into law.
- — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 87%.; As of September 2026, Texas Governor Abbott has used executive orders to pause grid connection and environmental permits for new data centers, affecting about 50 GW of proposed capacity, but this is not legislation. The evidence does not show that the state legislature has passed and enacted a law to pause new large data centers, nor does it mention any related legislative progress. Thus, these reports cannot establish that a legislative moratorium will be enacted by end-2027; the key uncertainty is whether the legislature will act.