Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2028?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of North Carolina enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflect
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 78%.; As of mid-July 2026, two U.S. states—New York and Virginia—have enacted state-level data center restrictions. New York signed an executive order on July 14, 2026, pausing approvals for new data centers with loads of 50 MW or more for up to one year; Virginia has tightened policies via taxes and approval thresholds but has not imposed a statewide moratorium. North Carolina is not mentioned in these reports, and no state-level moratorium or legislative progress for that state is indicated. Thus, the supplied evidence does not establish that North Carolina has enacted or will enact a statewide data center moratorium by the end of 2028. The key uncertainty is whether the state will adopt similar measures in the coming years, but current reports provide no such signal.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 77%.; As of July 2026, New York and Virginia have enacted state-level data center restrictions. New York signed an executive order on July 14, 2026, pausing approvals for new data centers with loads of 50 MW or more for one year, explicitly citing grid stability and energy pressure. Virginia has tightened policies through taxes and approval hurdles, with a state senator calling for a statewide pause, but no formal moratorium has been enacted. None of the supplied reports mention North Carolina taking any state-level pause or related legislative/executive action. Thus, the evidence does not establish that North Carolina will implement a statewide data center moratorium by the end of 2028; the key uncertainty is whether the state will follow similar policy trends.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 80%.; As of July 2026, New York and Virginia have enacted state-level data center restrictions, but no mention is made of North Carolina taking similar action. In South Carolina (not North Carolina), a legislator has proposed a one-year moratorium on new data centers, but this proposal has not become law. The available evidence does not show that North Carolina has enacted or formally proposed a statewide data center moratorium, nor does it explicitly cite energy or grid pressure as a reason. Therefore, these reports are insufficient to establish that North Carolina will implement such a moratorium by the end of 2028.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 81%.; As of mid-July 2026, New York and Virginia have enacted state-level data center restrictions, with New York signing an executive order on July 14, 2026, pausing approvals for new projects of 50 MW or more for one year, and Virginia tightening policies through taxes and approval thresholds. However, none of these reports mention North Carolina or indicate that it has implemented or is considering a statewide moratorium. Thus, the supplied evidence does not establish that North Carolina will enact a statewide data center moratorium by the end of 2028; the key uncertainty is whether the state will adopt similar measures in the future.