Can Netanyahu form coalition after Oct 27 election?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 71%.; As of October 12, 2026, the Israeli Knesset election is scheduled for October 27, with Netanyahu serving as caretaker prime minister. Recent polls project his governing coalition at 51 seats, trailing the opposition bloc's 55, and Likud has held a primary to court voters. These facts indicate an unfavorable outlook for Netanyahu, but polls are not final results, and no evidence covers post-election coalition negotiations, so it remains uncertain whether he can form a government within 42 days and resume the premiership.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 78%.; The supplied reports show that Israel's parliament passed motions to dissolve the government or parliament by overwhelming margins (110-0, 106-0, 62-0) between May and July 2026, making Netanyahu a caretaker prime minister, with new elections set for October 27, 2026. Polls indicate his coalition may win only about 50 seats, insufficient to form a government. These facts indicate significant political challenges for Netanyahu, but the reports do not provide the actual post-election coalition formation outcome or clarify whether he can form a government within the legal deadline. Thus, the evidence is insufficient to determine the final result; the key signal is the progress of coalition negotiations after the election.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 76%.; The evidence shows that the Israeli Knesset passed bills to dissolve itself between May and July 2026, making Netanyahu a caretaker prime minister, with new elections scheduled for October 27, 2026. Polls predict his coalition may win at most around 50 seats, insufficient to form a government. However, polls are only predictions, and the election has not yet occurred, so the final coalition outcome remains uncertain.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 81%.; As of a September 12, 2026 report, the Israeli parliament dissolved the government on July 17, 2026, with 62 votes in favor and 0 against, making Netanyahu a caretaker prime minister, with new elections set for October 27; polls indicate his bloc may win only about 50 seats, insufficient to form a coalition. Earlier June votes (110 and 106 in favor) involved no-confidence and corruption allegations, but the reports do not clarify whether these votes directly caused the dissolution or constituted a legal conviction. This evidence shows significant political and legal challenges for Netanyahu, but does not directly confirm the post-election coalition outcome; polls are not final results, and no actual vote counts or coalition progress after October 27 are provided.