Question trackingResolved
M15 Quito: Clark 99.95% win probability, 50-50 if canceled, divergence between price and outcome?
In the M15 Quito qualifying match, Miles Clark has a 99.95% predicted win probability against Elias Julian Werner, but the market resolves 50-50 if the match is canceled or not completed—could this rule cause a divergence between prediction prices and actual outcomes?
Closing recap
Across 2 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows M15 Quito: Elias Julian Werner vs Miles Clark 0%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
M15 Quito: Elias Julian Werner vs Miles ClarkClosed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market refers to the tennis match between Elias Julian Werner and Miles Clark in the M15 Quito, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elias Julian Werner' if Elias Julian Werner advances against Miles Clark. This market will resolve to 'Miles Clark' if Miles Clark advances against Elias Julian Werner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.