Will Ohio enact statewide data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Ohio enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflected in the
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 84%.; As of October 2026, Ohio has not enacted a statewide data center moratorium. Governor Mike DeWine paused new data center tax incentives in June 2026, but this administrative measure only affects new applications, exempts already-approved projects, and does not constitute a moratorium on new data center construction. Resident groups are pursuing a ballot initiative to permanently ban large data centers, but the initiative is incomplete and its goal differs from a moratorium. Maine's passage of a similar bill only shows progress in another state and does not directly reflect Ohio's situation. The supplied evidence does not show that Ohio has enacted or signed a moratorium, nor does it provide specific information on legislative progress or the ballot timeline.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 84%.; As of October 2026, Ohio has not enacted a statewide data center moratorium. The available evidence shows that Governor DeWine announced a pause on new data center tax incentives in June 2026, but this policy only affects new applications, does not affect already-approved projects, and is not a moratorium on data center construction itself. Additionally, Ohio residents are attempting to launch a ballot initiative to permanently ban large data centers, but this initiative has not been completed and its goal differs from a moratorium. Although Maine passed a similar bill in April 2026, it has not been signed into law and does not apply to Ohio. Therefore, these reports do not establish that Ohio has enacted and signed a statewide moratorium by June 30, 2027, nor do they provide evidence that such an event has occurred.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 84%.; As of October 2026, Ohio has paused new tax exemptions for data centers via executive order, but this is not a statewide moratorium on new data center construction. Governor DeWine signed an executive order in June 2026 suspending new tax subsidies, while already-approved projects remain unaffected. The order targets tax incentives, not construction bans. Maine passed a similar pause bill in April 2026, but it awaits the governor's signature, and Ohio is not among states that have enacted such moratoriums. The supplied evidence does not show that Ohio has enacted or signed a statewide data center moratorium, nor does it provide specific information about legislative consideration of such a bill. Therefore, direct evidence supporting the passage of a moratorium by June 30, 2027, is lacking.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 83%.; As of October 15, 2026, Ohio has not enacted a statewide data center moratorium. Governor Mike DeWine signed an executive order in June 2026 pausing new tax exemptions for data centers, but this order only concerns tax incentives, not a moratorium on new data center construction. The available evidence does not show that Ohio has passed or signed a statewide data center moratorium, nor does it mention related legislative progress. Although Maine passed a similar bill in April 2026, that state is not Ohio, and the bill still awaits the governor's signature. Therefore, the current evidence is insufficient to establish that Ohio will enact a moratorium by June 30, 2027; the key uncertainty lies in potential future legislative or executive actions.