Will US-Iran reach Hormuz traffic deal by Oct 23?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "No Hormuz Agreement" immediately if a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" will be considered to have occurred if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Hormuz Agreement component to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreemen
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "未达成正式协议，且产生其他未列出的重大连锁影响（如地区冲突升级、外交危机等）。", with a our assessmentestimate of 56%.; As of June 19, 2026, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, based on which Iran implemented new transit rules for the Strait of Hormuz, including a 60-day free passage period, 48-hour advance notification, and designated routes, and established an authority for routine management. This memorandum is not a formal agreement, and the two sides have disagreements over toll mechanisms after the 60-day period. The supplied evidence does not mention any further formal agreement after June 19, 2026, nor does it provide specific data on cascading impacts on global shipping and energy markets. Therefore, whether a formal agreement will be reached by October 23, 2026 remains uncertain, and related market impacts cannot be confirmed from the available evidence.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "未达成正式协议，且产生其他未列出的重大连锁影响（如地区冲突升级、外交危机等）。", with a our assessmentestimate of 63%.; As of June 19, 2026, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, under which Iran implemented new transit rules for the Strait of Hormuz, offering a 60-day free passage period and establishing an authority for routine management. This memorandum is not a formal agreement, and the post-60-day fee arrangements remain unspecified, with fundamental differences persisting. The supplied evidence does not mention any further formal agreement after June 19, 2026, nor does it provide quantitative data on transit volumes, freight rates, insurance premiums, or oil prices. Therefore, this report cannot confirm whether a formal agreement will be reached by October 23, 2026, nor can it assess the specific cascading impacts if no agreement is reached.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "未达成正式协议，且产生其他未列出的重大连锁影响（如地区冲突升级、外交危机等）。", with a our assessmentestimate of 62%.; As of June 19, 2026, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and Iran implemented new transit rules for the Strait of Hormuz, including a 60-day free passage period, 48-hour advance notification, designated routes, and the establishment of a management authority. The memorandum is non-binding in nature, not a formal agreement; its 60-day free period ends around mid-to-late August 2026, and the post-period fee mechanism is not specified in the evidence. The supplied reports do not mention whether a formal agreement was reached between late August and October 23, 2026, nor do they provide quantitative data on transit volumes, freight rates, insurance premiums, or oil prices for that period. Therefore, this report cannot confirm whether a formal agreement was reached, nor assess the specific cascading impacts if no agreement was reached.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "截至2026年10月23日，美伊双方签署正式协议，明确霍尔木兹海峡通行规则。", with a our assessmentestimate of 84%.; As of October 15, 2026, the available evidence indicates that the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding and, based on it, implemented new transit rules for the Strait of Hormuz on June 19, 2026, including 48-hour advance notification, designated routes, and a 60-day free passage policy. Another report states that the two sides agreed on a peace deal, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for June 19, 2026, in Switzerland. However, these reports do not specify whether that ceremony actually took place, nor do they provide any updates after June 20, 2026, regarding the signing or implementation of a formal agreement. Therefore, this evidence cannot confirm whether a legally binding formal agreement exists as of October 23, 2026, nor can it assess the specific cascading impacts if no agreement is reached.