Will North Carolina enact a statewide data center moratorium by end of 2026?

Earlier updates

The chart shows our estimated outcome probabilities at each complete assessment.

1. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of North Carolina enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW per facility (requested or nameplate), throughout the state. Suspensions of tax incentives, exemption certifications, or economic development awards alone will not qualify, nor will a moratorium adopted by a local government or limited to part of the state. Specific exemptions (e.g., for specified applications, executed agreements, or interconnection requests) do not prevent a measure from generally applying to all new data centers, or a qualifying subset of new data centers, provided that data center approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation is prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. Conditions on the resumption or termination of a suspension do not make a measure one that permits subject to conditions; a measure that suspends approvals, permitting, construction, or interconnection until a specified condition is satisfied qualifies. Enactment occurs when a bill becomes law under the state's constitution and laws, whether by gubernatorial signature, veto override, becoming law without signature, approval at a statewide referendum election, or any other legal mechanism by which statutes can be enacted. For an initiated or referred statute or constitutional amendment, or other voter referendum, the relevant law is considered to have been enacted on the election day on which it was approved, as reflect
2. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 94%.; As of October 12, 2026, the provided evidence does not mention any statewide data center moratorium enacted or signed in North Carolina. The reports cover similar measures in New York, Virginia, Maine, and Pennsylvania, but none address North Carolina. Thus, these reports cannot confirm that North Carolina has implemented a moratorium by the end of 2026, nor can they rule out the possibility of future action. The key uncertainty is whether North Carolina's legislature or governor will act before the deadline.
3. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 94%.; As of July 2026, New York, Virginia, and Maine have enacted or passed data center restrictions, but no evidence mentions North Carolina taking similar action. Pennsylvania has only advanced legislation allowing local moratoriums, unrelated to North Carolina. The supplied reports do not mention any North Carolina moratorium proposal or action, so they cannot establish whether the state will enact a statewide pause by end of 2026.
4. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 94%.; As of July 2026, New York and Virginia have enacted data center restrictions, Maine's legislature passed a ban pending gubernatorial action, and Pennsylvania's Senate advanced a bill. None of these reports mention specific legislative action in North Carolina, so they do not establish whether the state will enact a statewide moratorium by the end of 2026.
5. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — The most likely outcome is "No", with a our assessmentestimate of 95%.; As of July 2026, several U.S. states such as New York and Virginia have implemented data center restrictions, and Maine's legislature has passed a moratorium on new large data centers, but none of the evidence mentions any similar action in North Carolina. A Pennsylvania bill is still advancing and not yet in effect. These reports only cover other states' actions and provide no specific progress on a North Carolina statewide moratorium. Thus, the supplied evidence cannot establish whether North Carolina will enact such a moratorium by end-2026; the key uncertainty is whether the state has initiated any legislative or administrative process.