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How does price discovery efficiency of TWAP-based BNB market compare to spot-based?
On Polymarket, the 15-minute BNB price direction market for October 14, 6:00-6:15 AM ET shows nearly balanced odds (50.5% Up vs 49.5% Down), but it resolves based on Chainlink's TWAP data rather than spot prices. How does the price discovery efficiency of such TWAP-based prediction markets compare to those based on spot prices?
Closing recap
Across 2 public assessments, the state moved from “Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet” to “The final market result has been verified; this question is closed”. Final assessment: Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast
Closing basis
The final public baseline shows BNB Up or Down - October 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET 100%. This is a terminal probability signal, not independent news verification or formal settlement.
Final result
The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.
Final result
BNB Up or Down - October 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ETClosed
Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.
How we read it
All linked outcomes verified
Earlier updates
- — Public tracking started; no independent probability estimate yet.; Starting public context: This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
- — The final market result has been verified; this question is closed.; Final outcomes come from confirmed market winners or on-chain payouts, not a new model forecast.