Will Anthropic IPO and trade publicly in 2026, and when?

Earlier updates

The chart shows each outcome’s published likelihood, including its baseline and news adjustment at that time.

1. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — Anthropic has selected Nasdaq, with its 2026 IPO progressing steadily, though a completion by end of September is highly unlikely.; During this period, multiple media outlets confirmed that Anthropic has selected Nasdaq for its IPO, with Bloomberg reporting a potential valuation of up to $2 trillion and Nvidia in talks for a $10 billion investment. These developments solidify the path toward a 2026 IPO, aligning with the 83.5% baseline likelihood. However, given it is already mid-September and there are no reports of a formal prospectus filing, the probability of completing the entire process by September 30 is negligible, consistent with its 0.55% baseline.
2. Sep 15, 2026 UTC — Anthropic's year-end IPO path remains solid, but rising safety controversies have reduced the certainty of completing the IPO by the end of October.; This period, multiple media outlets confirmed that Anthropic remains committed to a 2026 year-end IPO, with a Yahoo Finance report explicitly mentioning an expected October IPO. This supports the 85.5% baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO. However, in-depth reports from CFR and Bloomberg revealed new headwinds: Anthropic's CEO called for slowing AI development, while OpenAI explicitly delayed its IPO due to safety concerns, placing Anthropic under more complex public and regulatory scrutiny as it proceeds. Although an analyst noted this rhetoric won't change investor assessments, this balancing act may introduce uncertainty into its near-term timeline, contributing to the baseline likelihood for an IPO by the end of October dropping from 59.5% to 56%.
3. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — Anthropic's selection of Nasdaq solidifies its year-end IPO path, but the near-term timeline still lacks a clear signal.; During this period, Business Insider reported that Anthropic has selected the Nasdaq for its IPO, with Nvidia potentially participating in a massive investment. This development directly supports the 87.5% baseline likelihood of an IPO within the year, indicating steady progress in listing preparations. However, the report offered no new information on a specific listing month, thus providing no fresh support for the near-term timelines of an IPO by the end of October or September. The baseline likelihood for an IPO by October 31 remains at 52.5%, and by September 30 at 0.7%, both reflecting the market's cautious stance on the short-term schedule.
4. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — No new reports this period; the Nasdaq selection news has been absorbed, with year-end IPO probability dipping slightly and the end-of-October window ticking up.; No new reports on Anthropic's IPO surfaced this period; the prior period's Business Insider report on the Nasdaq selection remains the only recent key development. The baseline likelihood for a year-end IPO edged down from 87.5% to 83.5%, while the end-of-October likelihood rose from 52.5% to 55%. This suggests that after digesting the Nasdaq news, the market slightly cooled on the overall year-end prospect but gained confidence in the nearer October deadline. The end-of-September likelihood held steady at 0.7%, effectively ruling out that window. With no new direct evidence, the judgment is maintained, and no additional news evidence adjustment is applied to the baseline likelihoods.
5. Sep 16, 2026 UTC — The Nasdaq selection news has been absorbed by the market; year-end IPO probability dipped slightly, while the end-of-October window cooled notably.; The only report in this period remains the September 13 Business Insider story on Anthropic selecting Nasdaq, a development already absorbed by the market in the prior judgment cycle. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by year-end edged down from 83.5% to 82.5%, while the end-of-October window retreated more sharply from 55% to 50.5%, signaling fading market confidence in the nearer timeline. The September 30 window has fallen to 0.35% and is effectively ruled out. With no new direct evidence, the judgment is maintained, and no news evidence adjustment is applied to the baseline.
6. Sep 17, 2026 UTC — No new developments since Anthropic selected Nasdaq; year-end IPO probability rebounded, and the end-of-October window warmed slightly.; This period saw no new direct reporting on Anthropic's IPO timeline. The only directly relevant piece remains the September 13 Business Insider report on its Nasdaq selection, which the market has fully absorbed. Despite the absence of a fresh official timeline, the baseline likelihood of an IPO by year-end rebounded from 82.5% to 86.5%, and the end-of-October window also ticked up from 50.5% to 52.5%, suggesting a slight recovery in market sentiment. The baseline likelihood for an IPO by the end of September remains negligible at 0.4%, effectively ruling out that window. With no new direct evidence, the judgment is maintained, and no news evidence adjustment is applied to the baseline likelihoods.
7. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — No new developments since Anthropic selected Nasdaq; year-end IPO baseline likelihood dipped slightly, while the end-of-October window warmed modestly.; No new direct reports on Anthropic's IPO process emerged this period. The only relevant direct information remains the September 13 Business Insider report on its Nasdaq selection, which the market has fully absorbed. Despite the absence of a new official timeline, the baseline likelihood of an IPO by year-end dipped slightly from 86.5% to 85.5%, while the likelihood for an IPO by the end of October rose from 52.5% to 54%. The baseline likelihood for an IPO by the end of September remains negligible at 0.35%, effectively ruling out that window. With no new direct evidence, this judgment is maintained, and no news evidence adjustment is applied to the baseline likelihoods.
8. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — New reports point to a November trading launch, providing concrete support for a 2026 IPO; the end-of-October window heats up.; This period saw a significant breakthrough in direct reporting on Anthropic's IPO timeline. The New York Times, citing four sources, reported that the company could release IPO-related financial filings within weeks and begin trading as early as November. This concrete timeline signal provides the most specific evidence to date for a 2026 IPO. In response, the baseline likelihood for a year-end IPO edged down from 85.5% to 83.5%, while the end-of-October window also dipped from 54% to 50.5%. These slight pullbacks likely reflect the market digesting a more precise 'November, not October' timeline. Given the new evidence clearly pointing to November while the October window remains possible, this judgment raises confidence in both the year-end and end-of-October outcomes, though no additional news evidence adjustment is applied to the baseline.
9. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — New evidence consistently points to a November trading launch, strongly supporting a 2026 IPO, while the end-of-October window has effectively closed.; Direct evidence on Anthropic's IPO timeline firmed up this period. A New York Times report citing four sources (indices 1, 2) explicitly stated that stock trading could begin as early as November. This signal aligns with the previous period's November-oriented judgment, providing sustained and concrete support for a 2026 IPO. On the probability front, the final likelihood of a 2026 IPO decreased from 83.5% to 80%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points, with a baseline likelihood of 80% and a news evidence adjustment of 0 percentage points. The final likelihood of an IPO by the end of October plunged from 50.5% to 32.5%, a decline of 18.0 percentage points, with a baseline likelihood of 37.5% and a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points. This adjustment reflects the fundamental conflict between the new reports pointing to a November trading launch and the end-of-October window, indicating that the likelihood of this scenario should be lower than what the baseline implies. The final likelihood of an IPO by the end of September remained at 0.4%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points, with a baseline likelihood of 0.4% and no news evidence adjustment. As the new evidence reaffirms the November window, this judgment maintains confidence in a 2026 IPO and assesses the end-of-October scenario as significantly less likely.
10. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — New evidence further solidifies a November trading launch, strongly supporting a 2026 IPO, while the end-of-October window has effectively closed.; Direct evidence on Anthropic's IPO timeline firmed up further this period. Cailian Press (index 1), citing an anonymous source, reported that the company has postponed its IPO from October to November. A New York Times report (indices 2, 3) citing four people familiar with the matter also specified that stock trading could begin as early as November. This signal aligns with the previous period's judgment pointing to November, providing consistent and concrete support for a 2026 IPO. On the probability front, the final likelihood of a 2026 IPO edged down from 80% to 79.5%, a drop of 0.5 percentage points, with the baseline likelihood moving in tandem and no news evidence adjustment. The final likelihood of an IPO by the end of October rose from 32.5% to 40.5%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points, but the baseline likelihood was 45.5%, with a news evidence adjustment of -5 percentage points. This adjustment reflects the fundamental conflict between the new reports explicitly pointing to a November launch and the end-of-October window, suggesting its probability should be lower than the baseline implies. The final likelihood of an IPO by the end of September held steady at 0.4%, with no change. Given the new evidence reaffirming the November window, this judgment maintains confidence in a 2026 IPO and considers the likelihood of an end-of-October milestone to have significantly diminished.
11. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Evidence for a November trading launch has further strengthened, solidifying the likelihood of a 2026 IPO, while the end-of-October window has effectively closed.; Direct evidence on Anthropic's IPO timeline has further solidified this period. Cailian Press (index 3), citing an anonymous source, reported that the company has postponed its originally planned October IPO to November. Reports from The New York Times, citing four people familiar with the matter (indices 4, 5), also explicitly stated that the company could begin trading as early as November. This signal is consistent with the previous period's judgment pointing to November, providing sustained and specific support for a 2026 IPO. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO remained unchanged at 79.5%, with no news evidence justifying an adjustment. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by the end of October plummeted from 45.5% to 8.0%, a drop of 37.5 percentage points. This sharp movement reflects the market's absorption of the latest reports: the new evidence clearly points to a November trading launch, fundamentally conflicting with an end-of-October window, making that outcome highly unlikely. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by the end of September remained unchanged at 0.35%. Given the new evidence reconfirming the November window, this judgment maintains confidence in a 2026 IPO and assesses the likelihood of an end-of-October milestone as significantly diminished.
12. Sep 18, 2026 UTC — Evidence for a November trading launch has further solidified, reinforcing the likelihood of a 2026 IPO, while the end-of-October window has effectively closed.; Direct evidence on Anthropic's IPO timeline has further solidified this cycle. Caixin (index 4), citing an anonymous source, reported that the company has postponed its originally planned October IPO to November. The New York Times, citing four people familiar with the matter (indices 5, 6), also explicitly stated that the company could begin stock trading as early as November. This signal is consistent with the previous cycle's judgment pointing to November, providing sustained and concrete support for a 2026 IPO. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO edged down from 79.5% to 78.5%, a 1 percentage point drop, with no reason provided by the news evidence for an adjustment. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by the end of October fell further from 8.0% to 4.5%, a 3.5 percentage point decline. This movement reflects the market's absorption of the latest reports: the new evidence clearly points to a November trading launch, fundamentally conflicting with an end-of-October window, making that outcome highly unlikely. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by the end of September remained unchanged at 0.3%. Given the new evidence reaffirming the November window, this judgment maintains confidence in a 2026 IPO and considers the likelihood of an end-of-October event to have significantly diminished.
13. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — Evidence for an IPO launch after the November midterm elections has strengthened significantly, reinforcing the likelihood of a 2026 IPO, while the end-of-October window has effectively closed.; This period saw a significant update in direct evidence regarding Anthropic's IPO timeline. A Reuters report citing three sources (indices 3, 5, 6) explicitly indicated that the company may postpone its IPO until after the U.S. midterm elections in November. This signal is highly consistent with the prior judgment pointing to a November trading launch, providing a more concrete time anchor for a 2026 IPO. In terms of probabilities, the baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO rose sharply from 78.5% to 84.5%, a 6 percentage point increase. Given the new evidence explicitly pointing to a November window and its full compatibility with a 2026 IPO, this judgment maintains confidence in an IPO within the year. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by the end of October remained at 4.55%, nearly unchanged, fundamentally conflicting with the November window evidence, making that outcome highly unlikely. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by the end of September remained at 0.3%, unchanged.
14. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — Evidence for an IPO launch after the November midterm elections has further solidified, keeping the probability of a 2026 IPO high despite a pullback in the baseline likelihood.; Direct evidence regarding Anthropic's IPO timeline continued to emerge this period, further solidifying the narrative of a November window. A Reuters report citing three sources (indices 3, 5, 6) explicitly stated the company may postpone its IPO until after the US midterm elections in November, and mentioned that the roadshow was originally planned to start in mid-October. This detail fundamentally conflicts with the judgment of completing the IPO by the end of October, making that node highly unlikely. In terms of probabilities, the final likelihood of a 2026 IPO decreased from 84.5% to 81%, a drop of 3.5 percentage points. As the new evidence clearly points to a November window and is fully compatible with a 2026 IPO, this judgment maintains confidence in an IPO within the year. The baseline likelihood for an IPO by the end of October was 5.4%, but this node fundamentally conflicts with the evidence for a November window. The news evidence does not support this increase, warranting a -2 percentage point news evidence adjustment, bringing the final probability down from 4.5% to 3.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points. The final likelihood for an IPO by the end of September remains unchanged at 0.3%.
15. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — The narrative of a November IPO window has been further reinforced, keeping the probability of a 2026 IPO high despite a continued slight pullback in the baseline likelihood.; During this period, a new social media post (index 1) claimed that Anthropic's IPO has been postponed to November. This aligns with the previous period's Reuters report suggesting a potential delay until after the November midterm elections, further solidifying the November window narrative. The post also mentioned plans for new AI model releases but lacked an official source. Another report on selecting Nasdaq for its listing (index 0), though published earlier, serves as background confirmation that IPO preparations are advancing. In terms of probabilities, the final likelihood of an IPO by year-end 2026 fell from 81% to 77.5%, a drop of 3.5 percentage points. This probability is entirely composed of the baseline likelihood with no news evidence adjustment, as the new evidence again points to a November window, which is fully compatible with a 2026 IPO. The baseline likelihood for an IPO by the end of October was 5.8%, but this outcome fundamentally conflicts with evidence pointing to November, warranting a -2 percentage point news evidence adjustment for a final probability of 3.8%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous period's 3.4%. The final likelihood for an IPO by the end of September is 0.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period's 0.3%, with no news evidence adjustment.
16. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — An October IPO window narrative has unexpectedly emerged, creating tension with the prior consensus of a November window. The probability of a 2026 IPO remains high, though the baseline likelihood continues to pull back.; Two new reports this period (index 1, index 3) both mentioned a possible October IPO for Anthropic, directly conflicting with the November window consensus established in the previous period. A Motley Fool analyst article (index 3) stated Anthropic 'could go public as soon as next month,' while another Yahoo Finance report (index 1) gave a vaguer 'October or November' timeline. These new signals introduce fresh uncertainty around the specific IPO timeline but do not undermine the core judgment of a 2026 completion. On the probability front, the final likelihood of a 2026 IPO fell from 77.5% to 74.5%, a drop of 3 percentage points. This probability consists entirely of the baseline likelihood, with no news evidence adjustment, as the new evidence, while pointing to an earlier October window, remains fully compatible with a 2026 IPO. The final likelihood for an IPO by October 31 surged from 3.8% to 13.2%, a rise of 9.4 percentage points. The baseline likelihood rose from 5.8% to 10.2%, and the newly emerged October window narrative provides direct support for this node, warranting a +3 percentage point news evidence adjustment, bringing the final probability to 13.2%. The final likelihood for an IPO by September 30 stands at 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, with no news evidence adjustment.
17. Sep 19, 2026 UTC — The October IPO window narrative has cooled significantly, with the baseline likelihood pulling back sharply. The probability of a 2026 IPO remains high despite a slight decline.; During this period, although new reports (Index 1, Index 2) continued to mention an October or November IPO window, the baseline likelihood for an IPO by the end of October plummeted from 10.2% to 6.2%, a drop of 4 percentage points, indicating that confidence in this early window is rapidly fading. A Motley Fool analyst article (Index 1) maintained the vague 'October or November' timeline, while another Yahoo Finance article (Index 2) stated Anthropic 'could go public as soon as next month,' but these repetitive signals failed to halt the pullback in the October window's baseline likelihood. Regarding probabilities, the final probability of a 2026 IPO decreased by 1 percentage point, from 74.5% to 73.5%. This probability consists entirely of the baseline likelihood with no news evidence adjustment, as the new evidence merely reiterated the expectation of a 2026 IPO without providing new substantive progress. The final probability of an IPO by the end of October dropped by 7 percentage points, from 13.2% to 6.2%. The baseline likelihood fell from 10.2% to 6.2%. The new evidence was merely a repetition of the existing narrative and insufficient to sustain the previous news evidence adjustment, which was therefore removed, aligning the final probability with the baseline. The final probability of an IPO by the end of September remained unchanged at 0.2%.
18. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — The IPO timeline has shifted further back, with the post-midterm November window becoming the new focus. The baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO has dropped significantly.; This period saw multiple new reports (Index 2, Index 3) explicitly stating that Anthropic may postpone its IPO until after the U.S. midterm elections in November, marking a clear narrative shift from the 'October window' to a later timeframe. Reports from Cailianshe (Index 2, Index 3) not only mentioned the delay but also revealed the underlying driver: Anthropic is considering launching a new AI model to counter the competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, a strategic move that may be diverting its near-term focus from going public. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO dropped from 73.5% to 68.5%, a 5 percentage-point decline, reflecting growing doubts about whether the complex deal can be completed this year. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by the end of October edged down from 6.2% to 5.7%, while the probability of a September IPO remained near zero. As the new evidence directly points to a delayed timeline and aligns with the downward movement in the baseline, no news evidence adjustment is applied, and the final probabilities match the baseline.
19. Sep 20, 2026 UTC — The IPO timeline shows conflicting signals, with new reports supporting the November window, but the baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO rebounded to 72%.; Two new reports this period offered different angles on Anthropic's IPO timeline. A Bloomberg report (index 0), citing the New York Times, explicitly stated that Anthropic is expected to make its trading debut "as early as November," reinforcing the market narrative that the IPO has been pushed to the post-midterm November window. Another Yahoo Finance article (index 1) described Anthropic as "going public soon" without specifying a date, a phrasing that suggests a sense of imminence. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO rebounded from 68.5% to 72%, a 3.5 percentage point increase. This aligns with the positive tone of the "going public soon" language but does not alter the judgment that November is the earliest feasible window. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by the end of October fell from 5.7% to 4.75%, and the September deadline remained near zero, further confirming the market consensus that a near-term IPO is impossible. As the new evidence broadly confirms the November window but introduces no new facts to justify diverging from the baseline trajectory, no news evidence adjustment is applied.
20. Sep 21, 2026 UTC — The November window expectation remains firm, with the baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO rising to 75.5%, though new evidence is only an indirect mention offering no fresh timeline details.; Only one new report appeared this period, from Zhitong Finance (index 0), primarily analyzing Bill Ackman's fund reallocation between Alphabet and Meta. While discussing Alphabet's potential catalysts, the report indirectly mentioned that 'Alphabet's other major investment, Anthropic, is about to go public,' but offered no specific timing, progress details, or new sourcing. This phrasing aligns with the existing 'IPO imminent' narrative but provides no verifiable new facts. On the probability front, the baseline likelihood of a 2026 IPO rose from 72% to 75.5%, a 3.5 percentage point increase. This shift may reflect the continued 'IPO imminent' narrative, but the new report itself offered no incremental information to drive a probability change. The baseline likelihoods for an IPO by end of October and end of September remained nearly flat, further confirming the consensus that a near-term IPO is impossible. Given the new evidence is merely an indirect mention with no fresh timeline information, there is no news evidence adjustment.
21. Sep 22, 2026 UTC — The expectation for a 2026 IPO remains solid, with new evidence reinforcing the link between Anthropic's strong revenue growth and a future public listing path, though no specific timeline update was provided.; Two reports this period directly referenced Anthropic's listing prospects. Wall Street CN (index 0) covered a closed-door speech by Blackstone's president, noting that Anthropic and OpenAI have reached an annualized revenue of $105 billion and mentioning that 'as they begin to go public, their powerful revenue models are driving valuation growth.' 21st Century Business Herald (index 1), in an interview with a Franklin Templeton strategy head, also stated that 'when Anthropic and OpenAI conduct their IPOs in the future, we will be able to see the potential profit paths of these companies more clearly.' Both reports treat Anthropic's IPO as a certain future event, set against the backdrop of its strong revenue growth, which aligns with the existing market narrative of a November IPO window. However, neither report provided any specific listing date, regulatory progress update, or new timeline details. On the baseline likelihood front, the probability of a 2026 IPO held steady at 75.5%, while the odds for a listing by the end of October or September remained virtually unchanged, reinforcing the consensus that a near-term IPO is impossible. As the new evidence reinforces the existing narrative without offering incremental timeline information, there is no news evidence adjustment at this time.
22. Sep 23, 2026 UTC — The IPO timeline clearly points to November, solidifying the expectation of a 2026 listing, while a September debut is impossible.; Multiple high-impact reports this cycle unanimously confirm that Anthropic has postponed its IPO from October to November. Citing sources, authoritative outlets like Reuters and The Wall Street Journal report the delay is to allow time to showcase third-quarter financials amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's new model, with a potential timeline set after the US midterm elections. The reports also highlight an annualized revenue run rate expected to exceed $100 billion and a target valuation of up to $2 trillion, with stock trading possibly starting as early as November. This new evidence sharpens the listing timeline from a vague 'within the year' to a specific focus on November, contrasting with the market's prior expectation of an October window. In terms of final probabilities, the likelihood of an IPO by Dec 31, 2026, remains at 75.5%, unchanged from the previous period, with a baseline likelihood of 75.5% and a news evidence adjustment of 0 percentage points. The probability of an IPO by Oct 31, 2026, has fallen from 4.5% to 0.4%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, with a baseline likelihood of 4.5% and a news evidence adjustment of -4 percentage points, as multiple authoritative reports unanimously confirm the IPO has been delayed from October to November, explicitly ruling out a listing by the end of October. The probability of an IPO by Sep 30, 2026, remains at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous period, with a baseline likelihood of 0.1% and a news evidence adjustment of 0 percentage points.
23. Sep 24, 2026 UTC — The IPO timeline clearly points to November, solidifying the expectation of a 2026 listing, while a September debut is impossible.; Multiple major reports this cycle unanimously confirm that Anthropic has postponed its IPO from October to November. Citing sources familiar with the matter, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and other authoritative outlets report the delay is intended to allow time to showcase third-quarter financial results, counter pressure from competitor OpenAI's new model launch, and potentially set the timing after the U.S. midterm elections. The reports also note the company's annualized revenue is expected to surpass $100 billion, with a target valuation of up to $2 trillion, and that shares could begin trading as early as November. This body of new evidence sharpens the listing timeline from a vague "within the year" to a clear focus on November, contrasting with prior market expectations of an October window. In terms of final probabilities, the likelihood of an IPO by December 31, 2026, remains at 75.5%, unchanged from the prior period, with a baseline likelihood of 75.5% and a news evidence adjustment of 0 percentage points. The likelihood of an IPO by October 31, 2026, remains at 0.4%, unchanged from the prior period, with a baseline likelihood of 4.5% and a news evidence adjustment of -4 percentage points, as multiple authoritative reports confirm the IPO has been pushed from October to November, explicitly ruling out a listing by the end of October. The likelihood of an IPO by September 30, 2026, remains at 0.1%, unchanged, with a baseline likelihood of 0.1% and a news evidence adjustment of 0 percentage points.
24. Sep 25, 2026 UTC — The IPO timeline is locked in for November, solidifying the expectation of a 2026 listing, while a September debut is impossible.; Multiple authoritative reports this period unanimously confirm that Anthropic has postponed its IPO from October to November. The delay is intended to allow the company to showcase its third-quarter financial results and could place the offering after the US midterm elections. Reports also indicate that the company's annualized revenue is expected to surpass $100 billion, with a target valuation of up to $2 trillion, and that stock trading could begin as early as November. This new evidence sharpens the listing timeline from a vague 'within the year' to a clear focus on November, contrasting with prior market expectations for an October window. In terms of final probabilities, the likelihood of an IPO by December 31, 2026, remains at 75.5%, unchanged from the previous period, with a baseline likelihood of 75.5% and a news evidence adjustment of 0 percentage points. The likelihood of an IPO by October 31, 2026, remains at 0.4%, unchanged from the previous period, with a baseline likelihood of 4.5% and a news evidence adjustment of -4 percentage points, as multiple authoritative reports confirm the IPO has been delayed from October to November, explicitly ruling out a listing by the end of October. The likelihood of an IPO by September 30, 2026, remains at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous period, with a baseline likelihood of 0.1% and a news evidence adjustment of 0 percentage points.
25. Sep 26, 2026 UTC — The November IPO window is further solidified, making an October debut highly unlikely and ruling out September entirely.; This period, multiple reports consistently point to a November timeline for Anthropic's IPO. The key development is that the company has entered a quiet period, with a roadshow expected in late October or November and stock trading potentially starting as early as November. Although one report mentions a late October possibility, the dominant narrative is firmly focused on November, partly to allow for the presentation of third-quarter results and to wait until after the US midterm elections. Regarding baseline likelihoods, the probability of an IPO by December 31 remains at 75.5%, and the news evidence provides no reason to shift this high-expectation figure. The baseline for an IPO by October 31 is 4.5%, but with all new evidence pointing to November or later, this window is highly unlikely, resulting in a news evidence adjustment of -4 percentage points to a final probability of 0.4%. The probability of a September 30 IPO has a baseline of 0.1% and is now practically impossible, with a 0-point adjustment, holding the final probability at 0.1%.
26. Sep 27, 2026 UTC — The November IPO window is further solidified, making an October debut highly unlikely and ruling out September entirely.; Multiple reports this cycle consistently point to Anthropic's IPO timeline being firmly locked in for November. The key development is that the company has entered its IPO quiet period and is expected to launch its roadshow in late October or November, with stock trading potentially beginning as early as November. Although some reports mention a late October possibility, the dominant narrative has fully shifted to November, partly to showcase third-quarter results and to wait for the US midterm elections to conclude. Regarding baseline likelihoods, the baseline likelihood of an IPO by December 31 remains at 75.5%, and the news evidence provides no reason to alter this high-probability expectation, resulting in a news evidence adjustment of 0 and a final probability maintained at 75.5%. The baseline likelihood for completion by October 31 is 4.5%, but given that all new evidence points to November or later, this window is highly unlikely; a news evidence adjustment of -4 percentage points brings the final probability to 0.4%. The baseline likelihood for completion by September 30 is 0.1%, which is no longer a practical possibility, resulting in a 0 adjustment and a final probability maintained at 0.1%.
27. Oct 12, 2026 UTC — November remains the dominant IPO window, though baseline likelihood has slipped; October is highly unlikely and September is closed.; Reports this period continue to point to an Anthropic IPO in late October or November, and the existence of an SEC prospectus further confirms the process is underway. However, the baseline likelihood of completing the IPO by December 31 has slipped from 75.5% to 71.5%, a 4-percentage-point decline that may reflect growing market uncertainty about the timeline. The news evidence itself provides no specific reason for a delay or cancellation, so the news evidence adjustment is zero and the final probability remains 71.5%. The baseline for an IPO by October 31 stands at 0.4%; given all new evidence points to November or later, that window remains highly unlikely, with a news evidence adjustment of -4 percentage points bringing the final probability to 0%. The September 30 window is closed at 0%.
28. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — November remains the dominant IPO window, though baseline likelihood has slipped further; October is highly unlikely and September is closed.; No new direct reports arrived this period; existing evidence still points to an Anthropic IPO in late October or November, with the SEC prospectus continuing to confirm the process is underway. The baseline likelihood of completing the IPO by December 31 slipped further from 71.5% to 69.5%, a 2-point drop extending last period's downward trend, likely reflecting sustained market concern over timeline uncertainty. The news evidence provides no new reason for delay or cancellation, so the news evidence adjustment is zero and the final probability stays at 69.5%. The baseline for an IPO by October 31 is 0.4%; with all evidence pointing to November or later, that window is highly unlikely, warranting a -4 point news evidence adjustment to 0%. The September 30 window is closed at 0%.
29. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — November remains the dominant IPO window, though baseline likelihood has slipped further; October is highly unlikely and September is closed.; A Bloomberg report this period directly confirms Anthropic still plans a multi-billion-dollar IPO between the midterm elections and Thanksgiving, but notes the window could prove difficult if election results are turbulent. The report also notes equity underwriting and IPO fees slowed sharply, with several pending IPOs withdrawn, reflecting market pressure on the IPO window. Baseline likelihood for completing the IPO by December 31 slipped further from 69.5% to 65.5%, down 4 percentage points, extending the downward trend. The news confirms the IPO plan remains on track but provides no new information on delay or cancellation, so the news evidence adjustment is 0, keeping the final probability at 65.5%. The baseline for completing by October 31 is 0.4%; given all evidence points to November or later, that window is highly unlikely, with a news evidence adjustment of -4 percentage points bringing the final probability to 0%. The September 30 window has a baseline of 0% and is no longer possible.
30. Oct 13, 2026 UTC — News evidence confirms Anthropic still plans its IPO between the midterm elections and Thanksgiving, supporting the November window expectation, but offers no new timetable confirmation; October remains highly unlikely, and September is closed.; A Bloomberg report this period confirmed Anthropic still plans a multi-billion-dollar IPO between the midterm elections and Thanksgiving, but noted the window could prove difficult if election results are turbulent; the report also highlighted sharply slower equity underwriting and IPO fees, with multiple pending IPOs withdrawn, reflecting market pressure on the window. A separate X post claimed Anthropic plans to release Fable 5.5 this week ahead of its IPO, suggesting proximity, though the claim lacks official confirmation. Baseline likelihood for completing the IPO by December 31 rebounded from 65.5% to 69%, up 3.5 percentage points, reversing the prior downtrend. The news confirms the IPO plan remains on track but offers no new information on delay or cancellation, so the news evidence adjustment is 0 and the final probability stays at 69%. The baseline for completing by October 31 is 0.4%; with all evidence pointing to November or later, that window is highly unlikely, warranting a -4 percentage point news adjustment to 0%. The September 30 window is at 0% and effectively closed.
31. Oct 14, 2026 UTC — News evidence confirms Anthropic still plans its IPO between the midterm elections and Thanksgiving, supporting the November window expectation, but offers no new timetable confirmation; October remains highly unlikely, and September is closed.; Bloomberg reporting this period confirms Anthropic still plans a multibillion-dollar IPO between the midterm elections and Thanksgiving, while noting the window could slip if election results prove turbulent; the same report shows equity underwriting and IPO fees slowing sharply with several pending IPOs withdrawn, signaling pressure on the market window. A separate X post claims Anthropic plans to release Fable 5.5 this week ahead of the IPO, hinting the listing is near, but the claim lacks official confirmation. The baseline likelihood for an IPO by December 31 recovered from 69% to 72.5%, up 3.5 percentage points, reversing the prior downtrend. News evidence confirms the IPO plan remains on track without new delay or cancellation information, so the news evidence adjustment is 0 and the final probability stays at 72.5%. The baseline for an IPO by October 31 is 0.4%; with all evidence pointing to November or later, that window is highly unlikely, warranting a -4 percentage point news evidence adjustment to 0%. The September 30 window is at 0% baseline and is no longer realistically possible.
32. Oct 15, 2026 UTC — News evidence confirms Anthropic expects to launch its IPO roadshow in early November and complete listing by year-end, supporting the November window; October remains highly unlikely, and September is closed.; Multiple outlets this period consistently reported Anthropic's Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, positive free cash flow, and 85% adjusted gross margin, with explicit expectations of an IPO roadshow in early November and listing by year-end, directly confirming the November window. At the same time, reports noted revenue growth slowing from triple digits to under 50%, and global AI stocks fell sharply on funding concerns and inflation pressure, with market skepticism about the AI trade potentially weighing on IPO pricing. The baseline likelihood of an IPO by December 31 rose slightly from 72.5% to 73.5%, up 1 percentage point, consistent with the news direction. News evidence confirms the IPO plan is advancing with a clear timetable, but market conditions carry uncertainty, so the news evidence adjustment is 0, keeping the final probability at 73.5%. The baseline for an IPO by October 31 is 0.4%; with all evidence pointing to November or later, that window is highly unlikely, warranting a news evidence adjustment of -3 percentage points to 0%. The September 30 window has a baseline of 0% and is no longer possible.